REGRESSION ANALYSIS ON NATIONAL INCOME (FROM 1998 – 2003) (A CASE OF FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA)
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title page
Approval page
Dedication
Acknowledgement
Table of contents
CHAPTER ONE
1.0 Introduction
1.2 Statement of problem/motivation
13 Aims and objectives
1.4 Scope of the study
1.5 Significance of the study
1.6 Definition of concepts
CHAPTER TWO
Literature Review
CHAPTER THREE
3.0 Methodology
3.1 Research method: regression
CHAPTER FOUR
Analysis of Data
CHAPTER FIVE
Conclusion
Recommendation
References
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
National income is the sum of the money value of all the commodities and services produced in a country within a particular period of time usually one year.
The question of how an economy grows could come to mind at this juncture. It the amount of goods and services produced by an economy increases. If it does not increase yearly, it is not growing, even if it is growing, the rate of growth may not be uniform among years. Therefore it may not be possible to determine the condition of the economy.
In any case, an economy needs an indicator for measuring economy growth, this indicator is the monetary summation at all the commodities and service produced in an economy within a particular period of time usually a year.
To get national income of a country like Nigeria for instance, we take the list of the goods and services produced in the country during the year, assign values to them and add up. If we can do this year after year, we shall be able to make comparison of activities of Nigeria year after year. Then we can decisively determine whether the economy of Nigeria is growing, declining or stagnant. It is growing if the National income increases year after year, declining, if the National income is decreasing and stagnant it there is no difference in the National Income for years.
In measuring National Income, an indicator called Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used at current price. It is therefore quite important here to point out the role that prices could play in the measurement of National Income. Prices of goods and services changes from time to time. These changes can affect any attempted estimates. Considerably. Therefore to get an idea of the real physical change in National Income from year to year, effect of price changes must be removed.
National Income should be measured in real terms and allow for changes in price levels. For instance whenever the economy experiences inflation, price rises while the quantities of goods and services may remain constant. Let us say that 2000, the total units of the go0ods and services realized in Nigeria amounted to 50,000 units and also 50,000 units in 2001. Let us further assume that the average per unit in 2000 was N10.00 while the price in 2001 was N15,000.
Nigeria’s income with GDP as an indicator for 2000 was 50,000 units X N10.00 = N5000,000 Nigeria’s income with GDP as an indicator for 2001 was 50,000 units X N15.00 = N750,000.
If the two figures were presented to a layman as final products of overall estimates for 2000 and 2001, he would be tempted to say that the National income for 2001 was higher than that of 2000. This is so monetarily but really the income for both year are equal. The difference in value was due to rise in p rice in 2001 while the quantities of goods and services were the same in both years.
The same thing can be applicable when a country experience deflation or depression. Therefore in measuring national income for different years using gross domestic product as an indicator effects of price changes must be given the normal due. In so doing the changes in economy can be determined appropriately.
STATEMENT OF PROBLEM/MOTIVATION
As a result of poor economic condition in Nigeria relevant information is of great interest to me for investigation if viable economic solution can be revealed.
Nigeria considered as one of the third world countries is been assessed by their income yearly. It is a simple logic of our living that it country’s income is high with considerable population, the enjoyment of the citizens of that country would be high, while the enjoyment is low with low national income. It is on this point that I find it very expedient to analyze the national income of Nigeria and make necessary recommendation for the improvement of the economy for the betterment of the citizenry.
AIMS AND OBJECTIVES
In view of Nigeria’s economic predicament, the project is aimed at investigating the relationship existing between disposable income, savings and government final expenditure for the purpose of suggesting solutions to our economic problems.
After the regression analysis had been carried out, it will supply solution to the following questions:
- Is any linear relationship between the variables listed?
- How reliable is our regression coefficient?
- Can we predict the future value of dependent variable?
- How reliable will be our estimate?
SCOPE OF THE STUDY
The study is centre on “National Income, Savings and Government Final Consumption Expenditure Covering the period of six years 1998 – 2003.
The raw data used are collected as primary data by federal office of statistics” publication and Federal Ministry of Finance Publication. The data are collected as primary data by federal office of statistics and used as secondary data in this project which centered on national Accounts. Some of these National Accounts Aggregates Include Gross Domestic Product (GDP) final consumption expenditure, exports and imports.
National Accounts data presents the record of economic transaction of the economic in a systematic manner and show the relationship between the various components of the economy. Economic transaction cover all the activities of an entity (Household, government, firm, financial institution) that are of economic nature (production, consumption distribution, savings and foreign exchange transactions. These economic transactions of all the entiti8tes and combined together ad presented inform of account.
Data collected for analysis in this study center on:-
- Appropriation of disposable income as dependent variable.
- Savings as one of the independent variable
- Government final consumption expenditure as another independent variable.
SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
The study will help to know the status of Nigeria economy. The knowledge of the status will help to make necessary recommendation in order to revitalize the poor economic condition of the country for the better future.
The study will also create avenue for future research.
DEFINITION OF CONCEPTS
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): This is the sum of the money value of all locally produced goods and services. It does not include international transaction. GDP does not make allowance for depreciation of capital.
Gross National Product (GNP): This is the total money value of current market prices of all final goods and services produced by the nationals during a specific period. It includes net income from abroad in respect of the country’s nationals without any consideration for depreciation of capital.
National Domestic Product (NDP): This is the total value of all goods and services produced in a country in a period of time. It exclude the value of the net earnings and incomes from abroad. An allowance being made for depreciation of capital.
Net National Product (NNP): This is the monetary value of all goods and services produced within the country during a specific period. It includes net incomes and earning from abroad and provision being made for the replacement of depreciation of capital.
Disposable Income (DPI): This is the amount of money per year that private sector are free to spend when depreciation of capital, all taxes, all net profits made by firms but not paid out as divided are added to the disposable and transfer payment subtracted. We arrive at gross national product.
Net Economic Welfare (NEW): This examines those factors not considered when calculating the Gross National Product (GNP). Such factors include social cost 9pollution) and leisure time the net economic welfare tend to remove the product (GNP). A nation might have a very high GNP at a very great social cost as pollution, rising crime etc.
Per Capita Income (PCI) This is the gross domestic product divided by the population of the country. Per capita income can be calculated once the population and gross domestic product are known. So that P.C.I = GDP
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
Galton (1886) first used the word “regression” in connection with predicting the mature height of children from the height of their parents. Galton corrected for the sex difference by multiplying all female height by 1.08, and he used a single predictor variable taken to be the mean of the fathers, height ad corrected mothers height.
After some consideration of data, it becomes apparent that the height of children of parents whose height exceeds average by x inches will themselves, on the average exceed the average by less than x inches.
In other words, the children regress in average sense back to the mean. By gradual metamorphoses, the term linear regression analysis came to mean the least square prediction scheme and hence the term multiple regression came to mean the general case with a multiple set of variable V1, V2, V3…… Vp-1 available as predictors.
The history of the method as opposed to that of its common statistical name is quite different. According to Gauss (1809) he first used the method in 1795 in a different context and under the name “method of least squares’. Gauss did not publish his claim until 1809 and legendry had independently described the method in 1806.
According to Eisenhart (1963), the method arose as a natural extension of the principle of averaging the results of several observation of the same quality to reduce measurement error.
It is interesting that the basic computational ideas may be traced back to Gauss (1811) who derived them in connection with l east square analysis and illustrate them with the data which he used to identify the orbit of the asteroid pallas from observations over the period 1803 – 1809.
In the exact sciences like astronomy, chemistry and physics, it is possible to formulate laws connecting several quantities e.g density temperature and pressure of a gas, so that anyone of these quantities can be determined (subject to small experimental errors) from the others. In methodology, production is much less certain, but it is still possible to forecast the weather with considerable success.
In living science like biology and agriculture there are so many unknown factors at work that every different result may be obtained from what appear to be identical causes.
Even here, however, the law of average hold good. Eg fat men and women tend to have fat children although the association is only partial.
The adult sons of men below average height will on the whole be nearer the average height than their fathers e.g the sons of men 1.6m tall might, on the average, reach about 1.7m. It was this regression to the normal noticed by Sir Francis Galton in his research on heredity that gave the “regression analysis” to this branch of statistics.
While therefore, the son’s height cannot be deduced from the fathers it is possible knowing the fathers height to make a better forecast of the sons height than simply taking the average of the population.
Narrowing it down to the study, knowing the national income data fro few years and making analysis on them can help to make a better forecast on the future state of the economy.
OBSERVATION OF NIGERIA ECONOMY
We are convincingly aware about the low standard of living in Nigeria because our per capita income is very low. We must consider how to raise our standard of living which is basically the problem of raiding per-capita income. Simply all things must be done to see that the GDPs for the possible by increasing the GDP and by controlling the population growth.
Much have been said about population and its attendants. We only need to adhere that in Nigeria the death rate fall while birth rate, increases, therefore population zooms higher and higher without corresponding increase in the production of goods and services. Consequently and with this awareness the government should timely encourage family planning schemes.
Nigeria is firmly struggling to increase the GDPs. This is manifested in the various budgets presented to the nation by her past leaders. Government is aware of the fact that to increase the GDP means to increase the flow of goods and services to the consumers. And that this could only be done by the joint effort of increasing the productivity efficiently and increasing the quantities of the factors of production, make the existing factors produce more.
Then increase the labour force and improve their skill by education, bring more of the vacant lands under production and use more capital is to industrialize. Capital singularly contributes more than nay other that we lack seriously in Nigeria today.
This makes the rate of growth of the economics of Nigeria very low-below 6% which is the UND’s poor Nations growth rates.
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Adeyemi College of Education, Ondo,
Alvan Ikoku College of Education, Owerri,
Alvan Ikoku College of Education, Owerri, .
Federal College of Educ. Abeokuta, .
Federal College of Education, Eha-Amufu, .
Federal College of Education, Kano, .
Federal College of Education, Katsina, .
Federal college of Education, Kontagora, .
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Federal College of Education, Okene, .
Federal College of Education, Pankshin, .
Federal College of Education, Yola, .
Federal College of Education, Zaria, .
Federal College of Education (Technical), Akoka, .
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Federal College of Education (Technical), Bichi, .
Federal College of Education (Technical), Gombe, .
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Federal College of Education (Technical), Omoku, .
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State college of education
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Nwafor Orizu College of Education, Nsugbe, .
Oyo State College of Education, Oyo, .
College of Education, Warri, .
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FCT College of Education, Zuba, .
Private college of education
Angel Crown College of Education, Gidan-Daya, .
Elder Oyama Memorial College of Education, Ofat-Adun, .
Assanusiyah College of Education, Odeomu, .
African Thinkers Community of inquiry College of Education, .
Best Legacy College of Education, Ikirun, .
Bauchi Institute for Arabic and Islamic Studies, .
Calvin Foundation College of Education, Naka, .
Harvard Wilson College of Education, Aba, .
Hill College of Education, Akwanga, .
Institute of Ecumenical Education, Enugu, .
College of Education, Foreign Links Campus Moro, .
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Diamond College of education aba . past questions,jamb news, admission form and list
Muhyideen College of Education, Ilorin, .
ONIT College of Education, Abagana, .
The African Church College of Education, Lagos, .
St. Augustine College of Education, Yaba, .
Yewa Central College of Education, Ogun, .
List of Federal Universities in Nigeria
Abubakar Tafawa Belewa University, .
Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, .
Federal University of Tech, Akure, .
Federal University of Petroleum Resources, Effurun, .
Federal University of Technology, Minna, .
Federal University of technology, Owerri, .
Federal University Dutsin-Ma, .
Federal University, Ndufu-Alike, .
Federal University, Birnin Kebbi, .
Michael Okpara Univeristy of Agric, Umudike, .
Modibbo Adama University of Tech, Yola, .
National Open University of Nigeria, .
Nigeria Police Academy Wudil, .
Nigeria defense Academy, Kaduna, .
Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, .
Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, .
University of Abuja, Gwagwalada, .
University of Agriculture Abeokuta, .
University of Agriculture Markurdi, .
University of Nigeria Nsukka, .
University of Port-Harcourt, .
Usmanu Danfodiyo University, .
List of State Universities
Abia State University, Uturu, .
Adamawa State University, Mubi, .
Adekunle Ajasin University, Akungba, .
Amrose Alli University, Ikot Akpaden, .
Anambra State University of Sc. & Tech, Uli, .
Anambra State University of Sc. & Tech, Uli, .
Bauchi State Unibversity, Gadau, .
Benue State University Markurdi, .
Bukar Abba Ibrahim University, Damaturu, .
Cross River State University of Sc. & Tech, Calabar, .
Delta State University Abraka, .
Ebonyi State University, Abakaliki, .
Enugu State University of Sc. & Tech. Enugu, .
Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida University, .
Ignatius Ajuru University of Education, .
Imo state University,Owerri, .
Kaduna State University, Kaduna .
Kano University of Sc. & Tech, Wudil
Kebbi State University, Kebbi, .
Kogi State University, Anyigba, .
Kwara State University, Ilorin, .
Ladoke Akintola university of Tech, .
Nasarawa State University, Keffi, .
Niger Delta University, Yenagoe, .
Olabisi Onabanjo University Ago-Iwoye, .
Ondo State University of Sc. & Tech, Okitipupa, .
Osun State University, Oshogbo, .
Plateau State University, Bokkos, .
Rivers State University of Sc. & Tech, .
Tai Solarin University of Education, Ijebu-ode, .
Taraba State University, Jalingo, .
Umaru Musa Yar’Adua University, .
Private Universities
Afe Babalola University, Ado- Ekiti, .
African University of Sc. & Tech, Abuja, .
Al-hikmah University, Ilorin, .
Ajayi Crowther University, Ibadan, .
Al-Qalam University, Katsina, .
American University of Nigeria, Yola, .
Babcock University, Ilishan, .
Bells University of Technology, Otta, .
Benson Idahosa University, Benin, .
Bingham University, New Karu, .
CETEP City University, Lagos, .
Crawford University, Igbesa, .
Elizade University, Ilara-mokin, .
Fountain University, Oshogbo, .
Joseph Ayo Babalola University,Ikeji, .
Kwararafa University, Wukari, .
Lead City University, Ibadan, .
Nigerian-Turkish Nile University, Abuja, .
Obong University, Obong Ntak, .
Oduduwa University, Ipetumodu, .
Pan-African University, Lagos, .
Redeemer’s University, Mowe, .
Renaissance University, Enugu, .
Wesley University of Sc. & Tech, Ondo, .
Western Delta University, Oghara
List of all the Federal Polytechnics
Air Force Institute of Technology Nigerian Air Force, .
Air Force Institute of Technology Nigerian Air Force, .
Akanu Ibiam Federal Polytechnic, Unwana, .
Nigeria Army School of Military Engineering, .
Federal Polytechnic, Ado-Ekiti .
Federal Polytechnic, Ado-Ekiti .
Federal Polytechnic, Bauchi, .
Federal Polytechnic, Damaturu, .
Federal Polytechnic, Ede, Osun State, .
Federal Polytechnic, Ede, Osun State, .
Federal Polytechnic, Ile-Oluji, Ondo State, .
Federal Polytechnic, Namoda, .
Federal Polytechnic, Nassarawa, .
Federal Polytechnic, Nekede, .
Federal Polytechnic, Nekede, .
Federal School of Dental Technology and Therapy, .
Hussaini Adamu Federal Polytechnic, .
Nigeria Army School of Military Engineering, .
Federal College of Animal Health and Production Technology, .
Waziri Umaru Federal Polytechnic Birnin Kebbi, .
List of State Polytechnics in Nigeria
Abraham Adesanya Polytechnic, Ijebu-Igbo, .
Akwa-Ibom State Polytechnic, Ikot-Osurua, .
Gateway Polytechnic, Igbesa, .
Imo State Polytechnic, Umuagwo, .
Kogi State Polytechnic, Lokoja, .
Kwara State Polytechnic, Ilorin, .
Delta State Polytechnic, Ogwashi-Uku, .
Osun State College of Tech, Esa-Oke, .
Delta State Polytechnic, Ozoro, .
Plateau State Polytechnic, Barkin-Ladi, .
Rivers State College of Arts and Science, .
Rivers State College of Arts and Science, .
Gateway Polytechnic Saapade, .
Edo State Inst. of Tech and Mgt, Usen, .
Niger State Poly, Zungeru, Niger State, .
List of Private Polytechnics in Nigeria
Allover Central Polytechnic, .
Dorben Polytechnic, Bwari-Garam Road, .
The Polytechnic, Ile-Ife, NITEL Road, .
Lagos City Poly, Ikeja, Lagos State, .
Light House Polytechnic, Eubuobanosa, .
Shaka Polytechnic, Polytechnic, Benin city, .
The Polytechnic Imesi-Ile, Osun, .
Heritage Polytechnic, Ikot Udota, .