A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF REPORTED CASES OF ROAD ACCIDENT IN ANAMBRA STATE (1994 – 2003)
(A CASE STUDY OF FEDERAL ROAD SAFETY COMMISSION AWKA)
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TABLE OF CONTENT
Table of content
- Statement of problem
- Aims and objectives
- Scope of the study
- Significant of the study
2.0 Literature review
3.0 Research methodology
- Collection of data and scope
- Problem encountered during data collection
- Components of time series
- Method of analysis
- Moving average models
- Thesis for hypothesis
- Complete randomized design (CRD).
- Presentation and preliminary treatment of data
4.0 Analysis of data
Accident is a situation in which someone is injured or something is damaged without anyone intending them to be. Accident may come in any form at any time and place. They occur to any person and even animals irrespective of its size, age, sex or status. One feature about accidents in particular road accidents, is that it often leads to economic loss, permanent disfigure and untimely death.
Road accident is a frequent occurrence in Nigeria and in Anambra State. The rate of road accident on our major highways is believed to be on the increase and the result has always been unpleasant. Road accident has been the major concern of successive government in this country because it involves loss of live and properties. Reckless and careless drivers as well as corrupt traffic policemen who allow these drivers to fly our roads sometimes with worn-oni types have converted our public highways into slaughter zone because of inordinate has for money and material wealth as well as corruption and bibery.
Some of these road accidents can be: (a) PATAL (b) GHASTLY (c) MAJOR (d) MINOR
- PATAL ACCIDENT: This type of accident may result in someone’s death.
- GHASTLY ACCIDENT: This kind of accident makes the victim to be very frightened, upset or shocked. In this type of accident injury can be sustained.
- MAJOR ACCIDENT: This is the form of accident that may have very serious or worrying result. It may be loss of lives through injury.
- MINOR ACCIDENT: This form of accident is small and not serious especially when compared with other forms of accident. Scrape of car paint or a slight damage to the car can be classified as minor accidents.
These road accidents were attributed to the following, causes, bad roads and bridges. In the previous years, road accidents were attributed to bad road and bridges, but today successive government have brought improvement on our roads by building expressways and good bridges. The question now is why are there still so many road accidents?. The newly built roads are in state of disrepair. There are bumps on some of these new roads, some of which are not maintained. The natures of vehicle contribute a lot to road accidents. Some vehicles have family brakes and worn out tyre.
Moreover, excessive speed and negligence of drivers are causes of accidents which should not be forgotten. Improperly overtaking or cutting in causing road accident. Overloading can as well cause accident. Animals not under control can cause accident on our highways. Intoxication, children and adult crossing carelessly can equally cause road accident on our highway. Many families are daily thrown into sudden mourning because they have lost relatives on highways. Effective measures need to be taken to ensure that merely traveling on Nigerian roads is not an almost certain preparation for the graveyard.
The governments at the federal and state levels have on several occasions’ laundered road safety campaign and the police have been in significant change in the rate of road accidents. This cannot be left alone for Institutes; administrative bodies should join hands towards solving this problem of road accident.
Thus, this work is concerned with the statistical analysis of the reported cases of road accidents aimed at identifying the factors influencing road accidents in Nigeria, which may help in finding lasting solution.
The road accident problem has assumed such proportion in recent years that our highways have virtually turned into slaughter zones. Many illustrious sons and daughter of this state have been untimely snatched away through ghastly motor accidents.
In very many cases especially in the few cities of the state, cars are destroyed, electric poles are damaged and as a result electric cables are broken. At some places along the road, structures are damaged when vehicles accidentally run into them and of course people lose their lives.
It is in view of those during tragedies that careful studies of road accidents need to be made for the state in order to help make useful recommendation of ways of at least reducing the road accidents.
The aims and objectives of this study are as follows:
- To identify the categories of vehicles which cause the accidents in Anambra state.
- To identify the major causes of wad accidents in Anambra state.
- To determine the trend of road accidents.
- To determine the number of deaths that result per month due to road accidents.
- SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
Human faults contribute a lot to the incessant road accidents. These faults avoided by the parties concerned, the government and individuals could help quench of accidents on our roads.
This study therefore will go a long way to help in following ways:
- To determine if the trend is increasing or decreasing
- To know the major causes of road accidents.
- To know the actual number of death per month in the state.
- To identify the type of vehicle that causes the greatest accidents in the state.
This is a study for a period of ten years (1993-2003) and it covers all the major roads in Anambra state. The data for this project was collected from federal road safety commission (FRSC) Awka with the research officer FRSC Awka.
2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW
Many research works on road accidents have been done in some other parts of the country. Why it was necessary to do literature review is to see the shortcomings of the methodologies apply by the other researchers and to take advantage of it.
Ihezie (1973) studies the causes of road accidents in Enugu province based on the data he collected for the period (19970-1992). He used the method of least square and moving averages as the tool for analysis, and concluded this road accidents in Enugu for the period under study was increasing and followed seasonal pattern.
Anayo (1976), based his own analysis on the data he collected for Bendel state for the period (19972-1975). The multiplicative model of time series analysis was applied to the data. He calculated spearman’s rank correlation co-efficient. Anayo used these methods because the population from which the samples were drawn was not normally distributed. Anayo concluded this road accidents followed seasonal variation and that highway accidents were on the increase in the area as of the period under study.
Dele (1983), studies the causes of road accidents for Oyo state for the period (19976-1982). Again the multiplicative model of time series and regression were applied to the data. The parametric method for correlation co-efficient was used. Dele tested for normality and found that the population from where the samples were taken or drawn was normally distributed. Dele used least square method to fit in the trend. He also used ratio for moving average to calculate seasonal indices. He concluded that road accidents and death resulting from them are on the increase and that accidents followed a seasonal variation.
Ebele (1986) in the study for old Anambra state road accidents for the period (1980-1985) used time series analysis, Regression analysis and chi-square test for independence. He found the trend that road accidents in the area followed seasonal variation.
Anthony (1992) did similar analysis for Oshimli local government area of Delta for the period (1982-199). The multiplicative model of time series and regression analysis were applied to the data. He concluded that accidents are on the increase and that excessive speed and improper overtaking on the part of the driver were the major causes of road accidents in the area as of the period under study.
Okechukwu (1994) did the similar analysis for Anambra state for the period (1984-1993) the used chi-square in testing for normality and concluded that data on deaths are normally distributed. Again he used correlation analysis to test whether accidents and deaths resulting in Anambra state are positively correlated and concluded that they are positively correlated. The equally tested for linearity using time series analysis and concluded that time and accidents are linearly related.
Iynette Show and Herbert Sichel (196) “Man is the streets definitely subscribes to the idea that certain people are for more lively to have accident than others and more emphatic on subject of road accident. He will laugh at yon if you suggest that accident (expect perhaps his own) is a matter of chance and there is no great disparity between one driver and the other. This led to the believe that certain people are indeed more likely to have accident than others, and that these people will be incapacitated in the process”
Mctarland (1962), stressed that it gad not been convincingly demonstrated that on appreciate number of people tend to have more accidents than others under conditions of equal exposure.
Mr. Etaghene (Nigeria tribune, March 13 1985 page 3) revealed that Nigeria had the highest number of road accidents in the worked, according to federal ministry of transport sources.
The said that police statistics for the year revealed that there thirty two thousand one hundred and nine (32,109) road accidents in which ten thousand, four hundred and sixty two (10,462) deaths were recorded while twenty six thousand eight hundred. In addition to loss of property, damages medical expenses and others unmentioned. He stressed that poor maintenance of high way’s and narrow roads cause accident.
Mr. Etaghene also emphasized this air road deserve better road signs. The fall that there are strangers on our reads is not taken organisatance of giving more often than not, requiring split second decision and any error of indecision contd lead to fatal consequences.
- A Epicson (196) asserted that the ability to make decision in traffic which is truth quick and accurate is something that should be cultivated during training. A decision may be worse than useless if it is unduty delayed. Fatal accidents n the road are infact more frequent than milder accidents. The degrees of vigilance exercised by a drive on the road should be adjusted to the needs of the moment.
Furthermore, it is not the during test that should be of paramount consideration but the training if the training is sound the test is a formality on the hand, no test can compensate for inferior training. Stephen Black (196), suggested that although people consciously approve safety measures, they take very different attitude unconsciously and may even enjoy seeing accidents. Life for most people is boring.
Ernest Marple (1959) declared that everybody on the road should drive as if the other chaps were a complete fool since there is no way of knowing who is a foolish driver, the best is to act as if the other drive belongs to the category of foolish once. This will entail large margins of safety clearance, wide berths and so forth.
John Cohen (1971), stressed that people that are alleged to the excessive vulnerable are people suffering from heart disease or epilepsy who may suddenly collapse at the wheel. All dent from these cases are relatively rare, perhaps one in a thousand according to a recent investigation.
John Cohen and Barbara authors of “causes and prevention of road accident” pointed out that the number of people killed or injured on road in 1965 was so percent greater than in 1955. They maintained that except for pedestrians the casualty rales for each class of road user has increased since 1955. In other words, for each class of road users sensualities are growing faster than the traffic.
They went further “if we had the will we should find ways, for we cannot assume that the problems of road safety are beyond the wit of man to solve once they are identified. We do not sufficiently moved by disaster on the road”.
John Chen maintained that to measure each driver’s skill on performance he was required not merely say what he though he could do, but actually what he did. It has been taken for granted that safe driver is the conformist the continues person or one million by range.
Schubert and Spoorer (1967) wrote on the subject of education of driver. “A multiple offender is defined as a person receiving three or more penalties for road offences over two years, each offence being registered at the central traffic and able reported to the local traffic authority”.
BACKGROUND OF (FRSC) FEDERAL ROAD SAFETY COMMISSION.
The development of high way code and the design of it. FRSC was see up or established with decree 45 of Feb 1988, signifies the honest intension of the federal government in road safety matter and accident prevention matter.
In order to create and enabling environment, for the enforcement of this traffic regulation. FRSC adopt a strategy which favors aggressive public education and road safety awardees campaign. In 1989, the revised highway code was created, therefore which marks another dimension in the effects of the federal road safety commission at property growing Nigerian motorize. The high code was revised in order to meet up with the several technical transformations which both the vehicle and the road have gone through as a result of modernization.
The federal military government inaugurated a FRC corps in Feb 1988, the intension was a directive by the federal military government to the FRC corps to build more scientifically on the successes of its predecessor. This revised Highway Code which is one the fundamental instrument in the intendments of these goals. That was why Prof. Wole Shyinka, the founder of FRC and then chairman FRC made a comments “our sense of mission today continues unabated rooted in the conviction that every man, woman and child in this nation has a right to life and to a life in which all his/her faculty are in tight” Not a right to life as an affiliated by a visue or oral handicap, not as patdud work.
The result of multiple skin graft after third degree burns in a high way infenior not worst of all as a mere vegetable in a weal share, hearing without the ability to respond, impervons to sensation which you and I were accept as norms of mindful existence, becoming in its own harrowing, dimension, part of the ever weading of wested human resources or to use an expression with wish we must be familiar yet another fragic view of “the wested generation” The content of the revised high code have being design towards the fulfilment of this mandate and it is the responsibility of every road user to this country to master their lesson and to observe them strictly.
Before the inception of FRC, road safety campaign have proof beneficial, therefore it is imperative that people should understand how to drive safely.
Prof. Wole Shoyinka and the first Chief executive Dr Olu Agunnoye design the basic assignment of commission now cause and stated in the degree;
- The prevention of road accident.
- The reduction of high rate of accident figures as were obtain from unoted nation of 1948
- Clearning obstructions on any part of the highway which may constitute or may lead to accident.
- Educating drivers, motorists and other member of the public generally on the proper use of the highways.
- Given prompt and care to victims of accidents
- They conduct researchers into causes of accidents and method of preventing and putting into use the result of such researchers.
Majority of our drivers in the country are illiterates and this has contributed a lot to road accidents. the commission believes that there should be road signs and literate vehicles drivers are also exacted to be safety conscious every time.
The commission has embarked on public education programme across the nation on road safety. Also the message of the commission is passed to the public through the mass media, seminars, conferences etc or defensive driving techniques. In fact drivers apprehended before the 28th of March 1989 were only lectured on road signs and defensive driving techniques.
Many drivers, an feeling that he is about to be overtaken by a driver of hanger car, feels insatiable urged to engage in life and death tussle with him. The foolish and reckless tussle is on the ground that a smaller car should keep its place. At time a male driver may feel challenged by a female driver when he must overtake at any price. In same cases, it is just that a car older or newer which had been in rear for a time and then by some stroke of fortime, has jumped in front, All these circumstance the driver falls that his self esteem is threatened, Few mortals can accept on a spirit of magnanimity the dreadful limitation in a stains rider society of being out witted or elbowed out on the road.
Babara preston (1962) highlights much on the external factor that cause road accident. She maintaiins that if a tyre bust, this would normally be considered the cause. The burst may however, have due to traveling too fast for too long or to the driver’s false economy in using worn or remolded types stark made a survey of tyre failures on the motorway and floured that nearly a quarter of all cars on the road had one or more tyres in poor condition and that the risk of a burst on the motorway using remolded tyres was about twenty times the risk of using tubeless tyres.
Isabel Manzies (1975) who studied driver’s attitudes by a group discussion method which she thought facilitates access to emotional factors influencing behaviour found that many drivers consider that road improvement is the main and almost the only, condition for road safety. The congestion and journey time but they many or may not reduce accidents.
Buchannan (1983) commented on the likely increase in cars in the next fifty years and estimated that by the year 2010, there would probably be about 40 million vehicles on the road, 30 million of them private cars. He then wondered how many more roads could be provided to cope with these increases in volume of traffic and concluded that it is impossible o provide adequate roads to contain the volume of traffic.
Communication system on road, judging from what has been said, is a ventable tower of Babel. It though one was living in a multilingual country. You say something to someone in dutch, which does not understand, or as though when you utter the word self, it means sugar to some pepper to others, and vinegar to third. Several specific suggestions have been made for making more use of the drivers ears. In some English cities, for instance, grooms have been made in the road such that a vehicle passing over the produces a sound.
This is intended as a warning to anyone who exceeds the speed limit. A notice audible warning strip” alerts motorist to the fact that if they travel over the strip above a certain speed there will be a signal.
A very important factor influencing the way a motorist driver is whether he has recently drunk alcohol can impair the shill and judgment necessary for driving long before the driver appears to be in any way drunk.
Nnadede Obioma Emmanuel (1997) recommended that the federal and state government should increase the number of road sign on the high ways as well as the access reads. He maintained that all vehicles made or imported into the country should have a maximum speed limit of 100km/hur. Finally, devices should be installed in all vehicles to help monitor the speed limits.
- COLLECTION OF DATA AND SCOPE
The data used for this research work was collected from “B” department co-operations central police station headquarter Awka and federal road safety commission Awka. The data are limited to the total number of accidents per month, number of persons killed per month, number of accidents by a cause and the number of vehicle involved in accidents.
By the nature of the records, it was not possible to obtain the statistics of people was died later in the hospital as a result of road accidents. It is therefore possible that the number of deaths recorded in far below the actual figure that died from road accidents. This study is for a period of ten years (1994-2003). It covers all the high ways in Anambra state.
- PROBLEM ENCOUNTERED DURING DATA COLLECTION
Some of the problems encountered during the curse of this collection of data include;
- The time wasted in going to the essential places.
- Bureaucracy; This is one of the most demanding problems of data collection. Date collection can be made frustrating to the researchers with imaginary protocols. Going to collect data to police station is not an easy task. You have to pass trough many officers before you get your data. You have to first of all get on introductory letter from your head of department which will introduce you as a student of the department you now write to security command officer I and II through the Sector command office (SCO) who will now ask that the data be release to you. Research statistics officers are officers in charge of researches in Anambra state.
- Inefficiency; The data were not property kept and it is also not orderly arranged this makes the research for the data burdensome and stressful. The work would have been ever if computers were used to store those data or information.
The analytical tool employed in this profit work is solely time series while design analysis are used for visual understanding
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING
Time series: Any variable that is measured over time in sequential order is called time series. The objective of this is to analyze time series in order to detect patterns that will enable us to forcast the future value of the time series, and its being measured quarterly.
There are four components as described below,
- Long term trend (T)
- Cyclical effect (C)
- Seasonal effect (S)
- Random variation
Trend (also known as secular trend) is a long term, relatively smooth pattern direction exhibited by a series. Its duration is more than one year.
Continue reading A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF REPORTED CASES OF ROAD ACCIDENT IN ANAMBRA STATE (1994 – 2003) (A CASE STUDY OF FEDERAL ROAD SAFETY COMMISSION AWKA)