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TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON THE REGISTRATION OF MOTOR VEHICLES IN NIGERIA (A CASE STUDY OF ASABA DELTA STATE 1993-2002)

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON THE REGISTRATION OF MOTOR VEHICLES IN NIGERIA (A CASE STUDY OF ASABA DELTA STATE 1993-2002)

 

 

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ABSTRACT

This project is based on time series analysis of quarterly registration of motor vehicles in Asaba Delta-state (1993 –2002) the whole project is divided into five chapters.Chapter one, deals with the introduction aspect of the study. Chapter two, the literature review, makes reference to other people’s work that are similar to this study.

Chapter three and four of this project work deal with the analysis of the time series data collected, filling of models, identification, forecasting.

Chapter five, consists of finding, conclusions and recommendation.

 

 

 

TABLE OF CONTENT

 

CHAPTER ONE                                                                                      

  • Background of the study 1
  • Purpose of study 3
  • Significance of the study 3
  • Limitation 4
  • Scope of study 4

CHAPTER TWO                                                                                               

Literature review                                                                               5

CHAPTER THREE                                                                                 

Research methodology                                                                      8

3.0     Introduction                                                                                      8

  • Source of data           8
  • Data analysis techniques 9
  • Time series analysis 9

CHAPTER FOUR                                                                                    

4.0   Data presentation and analysis                                                         14

CHAPTER FIVE                                                                                               

  • Findings 26
  • Conclusion 26
  • Recommendation 27

Appendix                                                                                         28

Bibliography                                                                                     29

 

 


CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

  • BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Motor vehicle evolves from the horse drawn carriage, it’s near relative from the horse drawn carriage, it near relative the stream carriage and perhaps the 19th century tricycle, but as the year went by gradually. Lost it likeness to any of it progenitor. All these at each stage of development were each used for transportation which help to limit and eventually abandon the use of animals and foot for transportation.

 

Every vehicle kept or used on, only public road must be registered and the appropriate vehicle license fee paid in respect of it. This is done by applying for a motor vehicle license.

 

The board of internal revenue which was known to be the revenue division of ministry of finance is the authority responsible for the insurance of vehicle license in the state. This board has motor licensing office in the various local government areas and the licensing offices in the various local government areas gives the monthly report to the state board.

 

There are two classes of vehicles which can be registered. They are the one that is import from outside the country or manufacture in the country that needed a change of registration for the new national identification scheme. the former require the former to fill the national motor vehicle administration form in duplicate signed by the customer. The document will be sent to the motor licensing officer in charge to verify the genuity of the document. If they are confirmed to be genuine, he will ask for two passport of the customer and mandate a registration clerk to register the vehicle before he signs. The customers pay the registration fee depending on the type of vehicle and the national vehicle administration form (N.V.A.F) is forward to the road safety commission for filling.

 

While the later is supervised by the federal road safety commission filling. The local government council will require all the vehicles to change their number plate and request for registration. General motor receipt each of which is to be photocopied in duplicate, the four copies of the (N.M.V.F) form will be filled and present to the motor vehicle licensing office for verification before mandating the registration clerk to register.

 

This registration exercise help the customer and the police to recover his/her vehicle if lost, it safe guide us against security purpose, easy identification, uniformity and revenue collection which is the source of our national income.

 

 

  • PURPOSE OF STUDY
  1. To determine the trend of registration of motor vehicle in Asaba, Delta state from the year 1993 – 2002.
  2. To forecast the number of motor vehicle registered in Asaba, Delta state for 2003 – 2004
  3. To make recommendation and conclusion on the registration of motor vehicle in Asaba, Delta state

 

 

  • SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

The findings of this research will help to establish the performance of the scheme and to find out about operational problem facing the registration system. This research work will give the internal revenue board to introduce measure and policies that will encourage the registration officers to run the operations it will also review the operation and activities of the board of internal revenue through which improvement can be accomplished and serves as a reference point to future researchers.

 

 

  • LIMITATION

Due to the high cost of transportation, lack of sufficient time series analysis and other problem that might have confronted the researcher, it become imperative to get the best and of a rather difficult and challenging situation

  • SCOPE OF STUDY

The researcher will focus his research on Asaba Area of Delta- state. This will enhance an indebt study which may be duplicated in other place by other researchers, to confirm or disapprove it’s kindling. In this study only the time series analysis of the registration of motor vehicle is considered.

 

 

 

Continue reading TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON THE REGISTRATION OF MOTOR VEHICLES IN NIGERIA (A CASE STUDY OF ASABA DELTA STATE 1993-2002)

STATISTICAL STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF COMMUNITY BANKS ON RURAL AREA (A CASE STUDY OF OBOLLO COMMUNITY BANK (NIG) LTD UDENU ENUGU STATE)

STATISTICAL STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF COMMUNITY BANKS ON RURAL AREA (A CASE STUDY OF OBOLLO COMMUNITY BANK (NIG) LTD UDENU ENUGU STATE)

 

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ABSTRACT

        This research work is aimed at knowing impacts of community banks on rural areas using Obollo Community Bank (Nigeria) Limited Udenu, as the case study.

This research was analysis using time series and data collection on the number of people that benefited from loan facility since the inception of the case study that is a period of six years, from 1997 to 2002 so to analyses how the rural masses appreciated the ideal of the community banking in Obollo Community.

 

 

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TITLE PAGE

APPROVAL PAGE

DEDICATION

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

ABSTRACT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

STATEMENT OF PROBLEMS

SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY

SCOPE AND LIMITATION OF STUDY

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

KINDS OF BANK INSTITUTION

CHAPTER THREE

RESEARCH OF METHODOLOGY

METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION

PROBLEM OF DATA COLLECTION

DATA PRESENTATION

CHAPTER FOUR

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

FINDINGS AND CONCLUSION

RECOMMENDATION

REFERENCES

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

        The introduction of community banking in Nigeria was an innovation, which was greatly influenced the financial sector of our economy.  It w as provided basic and ready solutions to some problems that for many years seemed insurmountable.  For instance, the country has continued to experience balance of payments difficulties, increasing debt, service burden, and gross depreciation in the exchange value of the Naira, persistence industrial unrest and low productivity.  All these are clear manifestation of economic depression.  Then, the fundamental concepts of a community bank is to establish a self sustaining financial institution owned and managed by members of a community for the purpose of providing credit, banking and other financial service to its members.  Largely by their self recognition and credit worthiness.

 

First, community banks enhance the economic activities in the rural areas, encouraging development and promoting community ownership.

 

Secondly, it transformed the tradition rotational credit system in formal banking.   The rural dwellers imbedded a banking culture which provided easy loans and better security and management at personal funds.  It would therefore not be an over statement to say that community banks succeeded where commercial and merchant banks failed.  This is true because the marginalisation of rural people by the other banks had compelled the central bank of Nigeria, some year ago, to issue a directive that specified the number of branches of commercial banks be opened in rural areas, though over 750 of such rural bank sprang up, the problem still persisted. Consequently, the search continued until December 1990 when the first community bank in Nigeria was born in Tudun Wada, Kaduna State.  It was established by decree number 46 of 1992 and amended by decree number 97 of 1993, Community Banks soon spread across the hinter land, receiving wide ovation and support from the rural dwellers.

 

The reason was simple because the difference was clear.  A community bank has simple ownership structure.  In this set up a Community Development Association (CDA) is the primary promoter of the bank with at least 30% of shares indigenes are also encouraged individually to buy shares not exceeding 5%.  The received loans easily without collaterals and become owners of banks located in their environment.  In effect a community bank can be said to be the people, the people and for the people.  No wonder; today there are about 1,982 community banks in the 36 states of the country and Abuja and provided employment to over 1,5000 people.

 

According to the executive secretary of the National Board for Community Banks, Alhaji Zakan Isa Chawai, the total assets of these bank stand at over N4 billions while the total deposit so far mobilized is over N3 billions, the country banks also have share holders funds of almost N800 millions while loans and advances of over N1 billion have been given to their customers.

 

A friend in need, it is said ‘is a friend indeed’.  And community banks have proved to be friends in need.  Not only because their doors are open for longer hours providing banking services even at weekends and public holidays, but because they have given succor to their customers especially whenever the other banks went on strike.  This is another reason why many traders, farmers, manufacturers, and other Nigeria have changed to community banks.  But for years after their operation, many of the community banks have not been issued a final license by the central bank of Nigeria.  Source of them still operating with provision license even when some have strong equity bases of between N5 millions and N10 millions as against the minimum take off equity of two hundred and fifty thousand naira (N250,000.00).

 

Perhaps a lot more is expected of the community banks especially in these days of Nigerians distressed economy. The National Board for Community Banks (NBCB), which was inaugurated on Tuesday, July 16 1991 to take control of all the community banks in the country.  Still has a lot of work to do if the community banking system must grow rapidly to save the development need of the grass root throughout the country.  The NBCB is grateful to government for the opportunity given to it to:

  1. Evolve a modern banking scheme adapted to the Nigeria indigenous culture.
  2. Devise a credit scheme that makes loan accessibility at the grass root a thing at joy.
  3. Awaka the innovativeness and creativeness of Nigeria producer who can now earn the elusive foreign exchange through embarking on productive venture.
  4. Provide a sound basis for grass roots development

 

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

YEAR QUARTER 1 QUARTER 2 QUARTER 3 QUARTER 4
1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

147

206

266

260

308

354

162

234

261

268

325

348

172

248

248

276

341

360

189

259

249

290

338

345

 

 

 

ISOLATING THE TREND USING AVERAGE METHOD

 

YEAR

 

QUARTER

ACTUAL

DATA

4 QUARTER

MOVING

3 QUARTER TREND  
1997 1

2

3

4

147

163

172

189

 

 

671

730

 

 

1401

1531

 

 

175.13

191.38

 

 

98.21

98.76

1998 1

2

3

4

206

234

248

259

801

877

947

1007

1678

1824

1954

2044

209.75

228.0

224.25

255.5

98.21

102.63

101.54

101.37

1999 1

2

3

4

266

261

248

249

1037

1034

1024

1018

2071

2038

2042

2043

258.88

257.25

255.25

255.38

102.75

101.46

97.16

95.50

2000 1

2

3

4

260

268

276

290

1025

1053

1093

1142

2078

2146

2235

2341

259.75

368.25

279.38

292.63

100.69

99.91

98.79

99.10

2001 1

2

3

4

308

325

341

358

1199

1264

1332

1378

2463

2596

2710

2779

307.58

338.75

347.38

347.38

100.04

100.66

103.06

103.06

2002 1

2

3

4

354

348

360

345

1401

1420

1407

2821

2829

352.63

353.63

100.39

98.41

 

 

 

SEASONAL INDEX FOR EACH QUARTER

        Percentage for corresponding quarter over all the years is then average to give a representative index for each quarter.

YEAR QUARTER

1

QUARTER

 2

QUARTER 3 QUARTER 4
1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

988.21

102.75

100.09

100.04

100.39

102.63

101.46

99.91

100.15

98.41

98.21

101.54

97.16

98.79

100.66

98.76

101.37

95.50

99.10

103.06

Total

AVE

501.48

100.30

502.56

100.51

496.36

99.27

497.79

99.56 =

3.v(Adj) 100.39 100.60 99.36 99.65 =

To adjust the quarterly average in order to obtain the seasonal index.  The average 399.63, we use 400 divided adjusted seasonal variation.

FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF CUSTOMER THAT WILL BANK IN DEPOSIT ACCOUNT FOR QUARTERS OF 2003/2004

        This can be achieved by multiplying forecasted trend with seasonal index of each quarter ie.

Actual data = forecasted x seasonal index when multiplicative index is used.

The forecasted trend from least squares method got in regression analysis is used.

 

 

YEAR QUARTER PROJECT

TREND

SEASONAL

INDEX

FORECASTED NO OF CUSTOMERS (ACTUAL DATA = TXS)/100
2004 1

2

3

4

879

388

397

405

100.39

100.60

99.36

99.65

882

390

394

404

2005 1

2

3

4

414

423

431

440

100.39

100.60

99.36

99.65

416

426

428

438

 

 

 

INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS

Regressive Analysis:       Using the techniques seen above, the regression lime Y = 160.54 + 8.74x was obtained which helps easily to extrapolate the future trend values.  The value 160.54 is the intercept of y and x axes while 8.74 are the slope.

To predict the trend for quarter of 2004 and 2005, just substitute 25, 26, 27 …… 32 into the equation y = 160.54 + 8.74X to get the project trend.

 

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS:       The graph of time series showing the number of customers who do bank in deposit accounts at the Obollo Community Bank (Nigeria) Limited Udenu, Enugu State as 1997 t o 2002 was constructed using the lime of best fit got from Regression Analysis, Y = 160.54 + 8.74X.  It was find out that the trend was find out that the trend was an up ward trend showing the rate of growth of performance of the bank which made the people to always coming to deposit with them.  it can also be seen that the rate of growth decline in 1999, may be because of socio-political climate in 1999 later rise in 2002.

When the trend was isolated with moving average method using multiplicative model, the cyclical and irregular movement of the series are eliminated leaving Actual data = Trend X Seasonal Variation.

Seasonal variation (expressed in %) = Actual data.

 

 

 

 

 

Continue reading STATISTICAL STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF COMMUNITY BANKS ON RURAL AREA (A CASE STUDY OF OBOLLO COMMUNITY BANK (NIG) LTD UDENU ENUGU STATE)

REGRESSION ANALYSIS ON NATIONAL INCOME (FROM 1998 – 2003) (A CASE OF FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA)

REGRESSION ANALYSIS ON NATIONAL INCOME (FROM 1998 – 2003) (A CASE OF FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA)

 

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

 

Title page

Approval page

Dedication

Acknowledgement

Table of contents

 

CHAPTER ONE

1.0     Introduction

1.2     Statement of problem/motivation

13      Aims and objectives

1.4     Scope of the study

1.5     Significance of the study

1.6     Definition of concepts

CHAPTER TWO

Literature Review

CHAPTER THREE

3.0     Methodology

3.1     Research method: regression

CHAPTER FOUR

Analysis of Data

CHAPTER FIVE

Conclusion

Recommendation

References

 


CHAPTER ONE

 

INTRODUCTION

          National income is the sum of the money value of all the commodities and services produced in a country within a particular period of time usually one year.

The question of how an economy grows could come to mind at this juncture.  It the amount of goods and services produced by an economy increases.  If it does not increase yearly, it is not growing, even if it is growing, the rate of growth may not be uniform among years.  Therefore it may not be possible to determine the condition of the economy.

In any case, an economy needs an indicator for measuring economy growth, this indicator is the monetary summation at all the commodities and service produced in an economy within a particular period of time usually a year.

To get national income of a country like Nigeria for instance, we take the list of the goods and services produced in the country during the year, assign values to them and add up.  If we can do this year after year, we shall be able to make comparison of activities of Nigeria year after year.  Then we can decisively determine whether the economy of Nigeria is growing, declining or stagnant.  It is growing if the National income increases year after year, declining, if the National income is decreasing and stagnant it there is no difference in the National Income for years.

In measuring National Income, an indicator called Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used at current price.  It is therefore quite important here to point out the role that prices could play in the measurement of National Income.  Prices of goods and services changes from time to time.  These changes can affect any attempted estimates.  Considerably.  Therefore to get an idea of the real physical change in National Income from year to year, effect of price changes must be removed.

National Income should be measured in real terms and allow for changes in price levels.  For instance whenever the economy experiences inflation, price rises while the quantities of goods and services may remain constant.  Let us say that 2000, the total units of the go0ods and services realized in Nigeria amounted to 50,000 units and also 50,000 units in 2001.  Let us further assume that the average per unit in 2000 was N10.00 while the price in 2001 was N15,000.

Nigeria’s income with GDP as an indicator for 2000 was 50,000 units X N10.00 = N5000,000 Nigeria’s income with GDP as an indicator for 2001 was 50,000 units X N15.00 = N750,000.

If the two figures were presented to a layman as final products of overall estimates for 2000 and 2001, he would be tempted to say that the National income for 2001 was higher than that of 2000.  This is so monetarily but really the income for both year are equal.  The difference in value was due to rise in p rice in 2001 while the quantities of goods and services were the same in both years.

The same thing can be applicable when a country experience deflation or depression.  Therefore in measuring national income for different years using gross domestic product as an indicator effects of price changes must be given the normal due.  In so doing the changes in economy can be determined appropriately.

 

STATEMENT OF PROBLEM/MOTIVATION

          As a result of poor economic condition in Nigeria relevant information is of great interest to me for investigation if viable economic solution can be revealed.

Nigeria considered as one of the third world countries is been assessed by their income yearly.  It is a simple logic of our living that it country’s income is high with considerable population, the enjoyment of the citizens of that country would be high, while the enjoyment is low with low national income.  It is on this point that I find it very expedient to analyze the national income of Nigeria and make necessary recommendation for the improvement of the economy for the betterment of the citizenry.

 

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

          In view of Nigeria’s economic predicament, the project is aimed at investigating the relationship existing between disposable income, savings and government final expenditure for the purpose of suggesting solutions to our economic problems.

After the regression analysis had been carried out, it will supply solution to the following questions:

  1. Is any linear relationship between the variables listed?
  2. How reliable is our regression coefficient?
  3. Can we predict the future value of dependent variable?
  4. How reliable will be our estimate?

 

SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The study is centre on “National Income, Savings and Government Final Consumption Expenditure Covering the period of six years 1998 – 2003.

The raw data used are collected as primary data by federal office of statistics” publication and Federal Ministry of Finance Publication.  The data are collected as primary data by federal office of statistics and used as secondary data in this project which centered on national Accounts.  Some of these National Accounts Aggregates Include Gross Domestic Product (GDP) final consumption expenditure, exports and imports.

National Accounts data presents the record of economic transaction of the economic in a systematic manner and show the relationship between the various components of the economy.  Economic transaction cover all the activities of an entity (Household, government, firm, financial institution) that are of economic nature (production, consumption distribution, savings and foreign exchange transactions.  These economic transactions of all the entiti8tes and combined together ad presented inform of account.

Data collected for analysis in this study center on:-

  1. Appropriation of disposable income as dependent variable.
  2. Savings as one of the independent variable
  3. Government final consumption expenditure as another independent variable.

 

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

          The study will help to know the status of Nigeria economy.  The knowledge of the status will help to make necessary recommendation in order to revitalize the poor economic condition of the country for the better future.

The study will also create avenue for future research.

 

DEFINITION OF CONCEPTS

Gross Domestic Product (GDP):      This is the sum of the money value of all locally produced goods and services.  It does not include international transaction.  GDP does not make allowance for depreciation of capital.

Gross National Product (GNP):      This is the total money value of current market prices of all final goods and services produced by the nationals during a specific period.  It includes net income from abroad in respect of the country’s nationals without any consideration for depreciation of capital.

National Domestic Product (NDP): This is the total value of all goods and services produced in a country in a period of time.  It exclude the value of the net earnings and incomes from abroad.  An allowance being made for depreciation of capital.

Net National Product (NNP): This is the monetary value of all goods and services produced within the country during a specific period.  It includes net incomes and earning from abroad and provision being made for the replacement of depreciation of capital.

Disposable Income (DPI):      This is the amount of money per year that private sector are free to spend when depreciation of capital, all taxes, all net profits made by firms but not paid out as divided are added to the disposable and transfer payment subtracted.  We arrive at gross national product.

 

Net Economic Welfare (NEW):                 This examines those factors not considered when calculating the Gross National Product (GNP).  Such factors include social cost 9pollution) and leisure time the net economic welfare tend to remove the product (GNP).  A nation might have a very high GNP at a very great social cost as pollution, rising crime etc.

Per Capita Income (PCI)        This is the gross domestic product divided by the population of the country.  Per capita income can be calculated once the population and gross domestic product are known.  So that P.C.I = GDP

 

 

CHAPTER TWO

 

LITERATURE REVIEW

Galton (1886) first used the word “regression” in connection with predicting the mature height of children from the height of their parents.  Galton corrected for the sex difference by multiplying all female height by 1.08, and he used a single predictor variable taken to be the mean of the fathers, height ad corrected mothers height.

After some consideration of data, it becomes apparent that the height of children of parents whose height exceeds average by x inches will themselves, on the average exceed the average by less than x inches.

In other words, the children regress in average sense back to the mean.  By gradual metamorphoses, the term linear regression analysis came to mean the least square prediction scheme and hence the term multiple regression came to mean the general case with a multiple  set of variable V1, V2, V3…… Vp-1 available as predictors.

The history of the method as opposed to that of its common statistical name is quite different.  According to Gauss (1809) he first used the method in 1795 in a different context and under the name “method of least squares’.  Gauss did not publish his claim until 1809 and legendry had independently described the method in 1806.

According to Eisenhart (1963), the method arose as a natural extension of the principle of averaging the results of several observation of the same quality to reduce measurement error.

It is interesting that the basic computational ideas may be traced back to Gauss (1811) who derived them in connection with l east square analysis and illustrate them with the data which he used to identify the orbit of the asteroid pallas from observations over the period 1803 – 1809.

In the exact sciences like astronomy, chemistry and physics, it is possible to formulate laws connecting several quantities e.g density temperature and pressure of a gas, so that anyone of these quantities can be determined (subject to small experimental errors) from the others.  In methodology, production is much less certain, but it is still possible to forecast the weather with considerable success.

In living science like biology and agriculture there are so many unknown factors at work that every different result may be obtained from what appear to be identical causes.

Even here, however, the law of average hold good.  Eg fat men and women tend to have fat children although the association is only partial.

The adult sons of men below average height will on the whole be nearer the average height than their fathers e.g the sons of men 1.6m tall might, on the average, reach about 1.7m.  It was this regression to the normal noticed by Sir Francis Galton in his research on heredity that gave the “regression analysis” to this branch of statistics.

While therefore, the son’s height cannot be deduced from the fathers it is possible knowing the fathers height to make a better forecast of the sons height than simply taking the average of the population.

Narrowing it down to the study, knowing the national income data fro few years and making analysis on them can help to make a better forecast on the future state of the economy.

 

OBSERVATION OF NIGERIA ECONOMY

We are convincingly aware about the low standard of living in Nigeria because our per capita income is very low.  We must consider how to raise our standard of living which is basically the problem of raiding per-capita income.  Simply all things must be done to see that the GDPs for the possible by increasing the GDP and by controlling the population growth.

Much have been said about population and its attendants.  We only need to adhere that in Nigeria the death rate fall while birth rate, increases, therefore population zooms higher and higher without corresponding increase in the production of goods and services.  Consequently and with this awareness the government should timely encourage family planning schemes.

Nigeria is firmly struggling to increase the GDPs.  This is manifested in the various budgets presented to the nation by her past leaders.  Government is aware of the fact that to increase the GDP means to increase the flow of goods and services to the consumers.  And that this could only be done by the joint effort of increasing the productivity efficiently and increasing the quantities of the factors of production, make the existing factors produce more.

Then increase the labour force and improve their skill by education, bring more of the vacant lands under production and use more capital is to industrialize.  Capital singularly contributes more than nay other that we lack seriously in Nigeria today.

This makes the rate of growth of the economics of Nigeria very low-below 6% which is the UND’s poor Nations growth rates.

 

 

 

Continue reading REGRESSION ANALYSIS ON NATIONAL INCOME (FROM 1998 – 2003) (A CASE OF FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA)

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF REPORTED CASES OF ROAD ACCIDENT IN ANAMBRA STATE (1994 – 2003) (A CASE STUDY OF FEDERAL ROAD SAFETY COMMISSION AWKA)

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF REPORTED CASES OF ROAD ACCIDENT IN ANAMBRA STATE  (1994 – 2003)

(A CASE STUDY OF FEDERAL ROAD SAFETY COMMISSION AWKA)

 

 

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TABLE OF CONTENT

 

Title page

Approval page

Dedication

Acknowledgement

Table of content

CHAPTER ONE

1.0     Introduction

  • Statement of problem
  • Aims and objectives
  • Scope of the study
  • Significant of the study

CHAPTER TWO

2.0     Literature review

  • Background of FRSC

CHAPTER THREE

3.0     Research methodology

  • Collection of data and scope
  • Problem encountered during data collection
  • Components of time series
  • Method of analysis
  • Forecasting
  • Moving average models
  • Thesis for hypothesis
  • Complete randomized design (CRD).
  • Presentation and preliminary treatment of data

CHAPTER FOUR

4.0     Analysis of data

  • Different tables of data

CHAPTER FIVE

5.0     Summary

  • Conclusion
  • Recommendations

Reference

 


CHAPTER ONE

 

1.0     INTRODUCTION

Accident is a situation in which someone is injured or something is damaged without anyone intending them to be. Accident may come in any form at any time and place. They occur to any person and even animals irrespective of its size, age, sex or status. One feature about accidents in particular road accidents, is that it often leads to economic loss, permanent disfigure and untimely death.

 

Road accident is a frequent occurrence in Nigeria and in Anambra State. The rate of road accident on our major highways is believed to be on the increase and the result has always been unpleasant. Road accident has been the major concern of successive government in this country because it involves loss of live and properties. Reckless and careless drivers as well as corrupt traffic policemen who allow these drivers to fly our roads sometimes with worn-oni types have converted our public highways into slaughter zone because of inordinate has for money and material wealth as well as corruption and bibery.

 

Some of these road accidents can be: (a) PATAL (b) GHASTLY (c) MAJOR (d) MINOR

  • PATAL ACCIDENT: This type of accident may result in someone’s death.
  • GHASTLY ACCIDENT: This kind of accident makes the victim to be very frightened, upset or shocked. In this type of accident injury can be sustained.
  • MAJOR ACCIDENT: This is the form of accident that may have very serious or worrying result. It may be loss of lives through injury.
  • MINOR ACCIDENT: This form of accident is small and not serious especially when compared with other forms of accident. Scrape of car paint or a slight damage to the car can be classified as minor accidents.

These road accidents were attributed to the following, causes, bad roads and bridges. In the previous years, road accidents were attributed to bad road and bridges, but today successive government have brought improvement on our roads by building expressways and good bridges. The question now is why are there still so many road accidents?. The newly built roads are in state of disrepair. There are bumps on some of these new roads, some of which are not maintained. The natures of vehicle contribute a lot to road accidents. Some vehicles have family brakes and worn out tyre.

Moreover, excessive speed and negligence of drivers are causes of accidents which should not be forgotten. Improperly overtaking or cutting in causing road accident. Overloading can as well cause accident. Animals not under control can cause accident on our highways. Intoxication, children and adult crossing carelessly can equally cause road accident on our highway. Many families are daily thrown into sudden mourning because they have lost relatives on highways. Effective measures need to be taken to ensure that merely traveling on Nigerian roads is not an almost certain preparation for the graveyard.

The governments at the federal and state levels have on several occasions’ laundered road safety campaign and the police have been in significant change in the rate of road accidents. This cannot be left alone for Institutes; administrative bodies should join hands towards solving this problem of road accident.

Thus, this work is concerned with the statistical analysis of the reported cases of road accidents aimed at identifying the factors influencing road accidents in Nigeria, which may help in finding lasting solution.

  • STATEMENT OF PROBLEM

The road accident problem has assumed such proportion in recent years that our highways have virtually turned into slaughter zones. Many illustrious sons and daughter of this state have been untimely snatched away through ghastly motor accidents.

In very many cases especially in the few cities of the state, cars are destroyed, electric poles are damaged and as a result electric cables are broken. At some places along the road, structures are damaged when vehicles accidentally run into them and of course people lose their lives.

It is in view of those during tragedies that careful studies of road accidents need to be made for the state in order to help make useful recommendation of ways of at least reducing the road accidents.

  • AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

The aims and objectives of this study are as follows:

  • To identify the categories of vehicles which cause the accidents in Anambra state.
  • To identify the major causes of wad accidents in Anambra state.
  • To determine the trend of road accidents.
  • To determine the number of deaths that result per month due to road accidents.
    • SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

Human faults contribute a lot to the incessant road accidents. These faults avoided by the parties concerned, the government and individuals could help quench of accidents on our roads.

This study therefore will go a long way to help in following ways:

  • To determine if the trend is increasing or decreasing
  • To know the major causes of road accidents.
  • To know the actual number of death per month in the state.
  • To identify the type of vehicle that causes the greatest accidents in the state.
    • SCOPE OF THE STUDY

This is a study for a period of ten years (1993-2003) and it covers all the major roads in Anambra state. The data for this project was collected from federal road safety commission (FRSC) Awka with the research officer FRSC Awka.

 

 

CHAPTER TWO

 

2.0     LITERATURE REVIEW

Many research works on road accidents have been done in some other parts of the country. Why it was necessary to do literature review is to see the shortcomings of the methodologies apply by the other researchers and to take advantage of it.

Ihezie (1973) studies the causes of road accidents in Enugu province based on the data he collected for the period (19970-1992). He used the method of least square and moving averages as the tool for analysis, and concluded this road accidents in Enugu for the period under study was increasing and followed seasonal pattern.

Anayo (1976), based his own analysis on the data he collected for Bendel state for the period (19972-1975). The multiplicative model of time series analysis was applied to the data. He calculated spearman’s rank correlation co-efficient. Anayo used these methods because the population from which the samples were drawn was not normally distributed. Anayo concluded this road accidents followed seasonal variation and that highway accidents were on the increase in the area as of the period under study.

Dele (1983), studies the causes of road accidents for Oyo state for the period (19976-1982).  Again the multiplicative model of time series and regression were applied to the data. The parametric method for correlation co-efficient was used. Dele tested for normality and found that the population from where the samples were taken or drawn was normally distributed. Dele used least square method to fit in the trend. He also used ratio for moving average to calculate seasonal indices. He concluded that road accidents and death resulting from them are on the increase and that accidents followed a seasonal variation.

Ebele (1986) in the study for old Anambra state road accidents for the period (1980-1985) used time series analysis, Regression analysis and chi-square test for independence. He found the trend that road accidents in the area followed seasonal variation.

 

Anthony (1992) did similar analysis for Oshimli local government area of Delta for the period (1982-199). The multiplicative model of time series and regression analysis were applied to the data. He concluded that accidents are on the increase and that excessive speed and improper overtaking on the part of the driver were the major causes of road accidents in the area as of the period under study.

 

Okechukwu (1994) did the similar analysis for Anambra state for the period (1984-1993) the used chi-square in testing for normality and concluded that data on deaths are normally distributed. Again he used correlation analysis to test whether accidents and deaths resulting in Anambra state are positively correlated and concluded that they are positively correlated. The equally tested for linearity using time series analysis and concluded that time and accidents are linearly related.

Iynette Show and Herbert Sichel (196) “Man is the streets definitely subscribes to the idea that certain people are for more lively to have accident than others and more emphatic on subject of road accident. He will laugh at yon if you suggest that accident (expect perhaps his own) is a matter of chance and there is no great disparity between one driver and the other. This led to the believe that certain people are indeed more likely to have accident than others, and that these people will be incapacitated in the process”

Mctarland (1962), stressed that it gad not been convincingly demonstrated that on appreciate number of people tend to have more accidents than others under conditions of equal exposure.

Mr. Etaghene (Nigeria tribune, March 13 1985 page 3) revealed that Nigeria had the highest number of road accidents in the worked, according to federal ministry of transport sources.

The said that police statistics for the year revealed that there thirty two thousand one hundred and nine (32,109) road accidents in which ten thousand, four hundred and sixty two (10,462) deaths were recorded while twenty six thousand eight hundred. In addition to loss of property, damages medical expenses and others unmentioned. He stressed that poor maintenance of high way’s and narrow roads cause accident.

Mr. Etaghene also emphasized this air road deserve better road signs. The fall that there are strangers on our reads is not taken organisatance of giving more often than not, requiring split second decision and any error of indecision contd lead to fatal consequences.

  1. A Epicson (196) asserted that the ability to make decision in traffic which is truth quick and accurate is something that should be cultivated during training. A decision may be worse than useless if it is unduty delayed. Fatal accidents n the road are infact more frequent than milder accidents. The degrees of vigilance exercised by a drive on the road should be adjusted to the needs of the moment.

 

Furthermore, it is not the during test that should be of paramount consideration but the training if the training is sound the test is a formality on the hand, no test can compensate for inferior training. Stephen Black (196), suggested that although people consciously approve safety measures, they take very different attitude unconsciously and may even enjoy seeing accidents. Life for most people is boring.

Ernest Marple (1959) declared that everybody on the road should drive as if the other chaps were a complete fool since there is no way of knowing who is a foolish driver, the best is to act as if the other drive belongs to the category of foolish once. This will entail large margins of safety clearance, wide berths and so forth.

 

John Cohen (1971), stressed that people that are alleged to the excessive vulnerable are people suffering from heart disease or epilepsy who may suddenly collapse at the wheel. All dent from these cases are relatively rare, perhaps one in a thousand according to a recent investigation.

 

John Cohen and Barbara authors of “causes and prevention of road accident” pointed out that the number of people killed or injured on road in 1965 was so percent greater than in 1955. They maintained that except for pedestrians the casualty rales for each class of road user has increased since 1955. In other words, for each class of road users sensualities are growing faster than the traffic.

 

They went further “if we had the will we should find ways, for we cannot assume that the problems of road safety are beyond the wit of man to solve once they are identified. We do not sufficiently moved by disaster on the road”.

John Chen maintained that to measure each driver’s skill on performance he was required not merely say what he though he could do, but actually what he did. It has been taken for granted that safe driver is the conformist the continues person or one million by range.

Schubert and Spoorer (1967) wrote on the subject of education of driver. “A multiple offender is defined as a person receiving three or more penalties for road offences over two years, each offence being registered at the central traffic and able reported to the local traffic authority”.

 

 

BACKGROUND OF (FRSC) FEDERAL ROAD SAFETY COMMISSION.

The development of high way code and the design of it. FRSC was see up or established with decree 45 of Feb 1988, signifies the honest intension of the federal government in road safety matter and accident prevention matter.

In order to create and enabling environment, for the enforcement of this traffic regulation. FRSC adopt a strategy which favors aggressive public education and road safety awardees campaign.  In 1989, the revised highway code was created, therefore which marks another dimension in the effects of the federal road safety commission at property growing Nigerian motorize. The high code was revised in order to meet up with the several technical transformations which both the vehicle and the road have gone through as a result of modernization.

 

The federal military government inaugurated a FRC corps in Feb 1988, the intension was a directive by the federal military government to the FRC corps to build more scientifically on the successes of its predecessor. This revised Highway Code which is one the fundamental instrument in the intendments of these goals. That was why Prof. Wole Shyinka, the founder of FRC and then chairman FRC  made a comments “our sense of mission today continues unabated rooted in the conviction that every man, woman and child in this nation has a right to life and to a life in which all his/her faculty are in tight” Not a right to life as an affiliated by a visue or oral handicap, not as patdud work.

 

The result of multiple skin graft after third degree burns in a high way infenior not worst of all as a mere vegetable in a weal share, hearing without the ability to respond, impervons to sensation which you and I were accept as norms of mindful existence, becoming in its own harrowing, dimension, part of the ever weading of  wested human resources or to use an expression with wish we must be familiar yet another fragic view of “the wested generation” The content of the revised high code have being design towards the fulfilment of this mandate and it is the responsibility of every road user to this country to master their lesson and to observe them strictly.

 

Before the inception of FRC, road safety campaign have proof beneficial, therefore it is imperative that people should understand how to drive safely.

Prof. Wole Shoyinka and the first Chief executive Dr Olu Agunnoye design the basic assignment of commission now cause and stated in the degree;

  1. The prevention of road accident.
  2. The reduction of high rate of accident figures as were obtain from unoted nation of 1948
  3. Clearning obstructions on any part of the highway which may constitute or may lead to accident.
  4. Educating drivers, motorists and other member of the public generally on the proper use of the highways.
  5. Given prompt and care to victims of accidents
  6. They conduct researchers into causes of accidents and method of preventing and putting into use the result of such researchers.

Majority of our drivers in the country are illiterates and this has contributed a lot to road accidents. the commission believes that there should be road signs and literate vehicles drivers are also exacted to be safety conscious every time.

The commission has embarked on public education programme across the nation on road safety. Also the message of the commission is passed to the public through the mass media, seminars, conferences etc or defensive driving techniques. In fact drivers apprehended before the 28th of March 1989 were only lectured on road signs and defensive driving techniques.

 

Many drivers, an feeling that he is about to be overtaken by a driver of hanger car, feels insatiable urged to engage in life and death tussle with him. The foolish and reckless tussle is on the ground that a smaller car should keep its place. At time a male driver may feel challenged by a female driver when he must overtake at any price. In same cases, it is just that a car older or newer which had been in rear for a time and then by some stroke of fortime, has jumped in front, All these circumstance the driver falls that his self esteem is threatened, Few mortals can accept on a spirit of magnanimity the dreadful limitation in a stains rider society of being out witted or elbowed out on the road.

 

Babara preston (1962) highlights much on the external factor that cause road accident. She maintaiins that if a tyre bust, this would normally be considered the cause. The burst may however, have due to traveling too fast for too long or to the driver’s false economy in using worn or remolded types stark made a survey of tyre failures on the motorway and floured that nearly a quarter of all cars on the road had one or more tyres in poor condition and that the risk of a burst on the motorway using remolded tyres was about twenty times the risk of using tubeless tyres.

 

Isabel Manzies (1975) who studied driver’s attitudes by a group discussion method which she thought facilitates access to emotional factors influencing behaviour found that many drivers consider that road improvement is the main and almost the only, condition for road safety. The congestion and journey time but they many or may not reduce accidents.

Buchannan (1983) commented on the likely increase in cars in the next fifty years and estimated that by the year 2010, there would probably be about 40 million vehicles on the road, 30 million of them private cars. He then wondered how many more roads could be provided to cope with these increases in volume of traffic and concluded that it is impossible o provide adequate roads to contain the volume of traffic.

Communication system on road, judging from what has been said, is a ventable tower of Babel. It though one was living in a multilingual country. You say something to someone in dutch, which does not understand, or as though when you utter the word self, it means sugar to some pepper to others, and vinegar to third. Several specific suggestions have been made for  making more use of the drivers ears. In some English cities, for instance, grooms have been made in the road such that a vehicle passing over the produces a sound.

This is intended as a warning to anyone who exceeds the speed limit. A notice audible warning strip” alerts motorist to the fact that if they travel over the strip above a certain speed there will be a signal.

A very important factor influencing the way a motorist driver is whether he has recently drunk alcohol can impair the shill and judgment necessary for driving long before the driver appears to be in any way drunk.

Nnadede Obioma Emmanuel (1997) recommended that the federal and state government should increase the number of road sign on the high ways as well as the access reads. He maintained that all vehicles made or imported into the country should have a maximum speed limit of 100km/hur. Finally, devices should be installed in all vehicles to help monitor the speed limits.

 

 

 

 

 

CHAPTER THREE

 

METHODOLOGY

  • COLLECTION OF DATA AND SCOPE

The data used for this research work was collected from “B” department co-operations central police station headquarter Awka and federal road safety commission Awka. The data are limited to the total number of accidents per month, number of persons killed per month, number of accidents by a cause and the number of vehicle involved in accidents.

By the nature of the records, it was not possible to obtain the statistics of people was died later in the hospital as a result of road accidents. It is therefore possible that the number of deaths recorded in far below the actual figure that died from road accidents. This study is for a period of ten years (1994-2003). It covers all the high ways in Anambra state.

 

  • PROBLEM ENCOUNTERED DURING DATA COLLECTION

Some of the problems encountered during the curse of this collection of data include;

  • The time wasted in going to the essential places.
  • Bureaucracy; This is one of the most demanding problems of data collection. Date collection can be made frustrating to the researchers with imaginary protocols. Going to collect data to police station is not an easy task. You have to pass trough many officers before you get your data. You have to first of all get on introductory letter from your head of department which will introduce you as a student of the department you now write to security command officer I and II through the Sector command office (SCO) who will now ask that the data be release to you. Research statistics officers are officers in charge of researches in Anambra state.
  • Inefficiency; The data were not property kept and it is also not orderly arranged this makes the research for the data burdensome and stressful. The work would have been ever if computers were used to store those data or information.

 

 

 

  • METHOD OF ANALYSIS

The analytical tool employed in this profit work is solely time series while design analysis are used for visual understanding

 

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING

Time series: Any variable that is measured over time in sequential order is called time series. The objective of this is to analyze time series in order to detect patterns that will enable us to forcast the future value of the time series, and its being measured quarterly.

 

  • COMPONENTS F TIME SERIES

There are four components as described below,

  1. Long term trend (T)
  2. Cyclical effect (C)
  3. Seasonal effect (S)
  4. Random variation

Trend (also known as secular trend) is a long term, relatively smooth pattern direction exhibited by a series. Its duration is more than one year.

 

 

 

Continue reading A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF REPORTED CASES OF ROAD ACCIDENT IN ANAMBRA STATE (1994 – 2003) (A CASE STUDY OF FEDERAL ROAD SAFETY COMMISSION AWKA)

THE EFFECT OF SECRET CULTS IN OUR TERTIARY INSTITUTIONS (A CASE STUDY OF I.M.T ENUGU)

THE EFFECT OF SECRET CULTS IN OUR TERTIARY INSTITUTIONS (A CASE STUDY OF I.M.T ENUGU)

 

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ABSTRACT

 

The objective of the study is to ascertain the effect of secret cult in our tertiary institution.

It equally looks the actions of the members of the different secret cults.

In other to achieve this, I made use of students, lectures, Administrative staff of institutes of management and technology, Enugu.

A questionnaire measuring the factors or effects of students involvement in secret cult was administered on the subjects.

In the use of mean and percentage scores to find out if any of the factors domains would be perceived as the major effects of students involvement in secret cult of I.M.T, Enugu. I discovered that the academic factor and the economic factors ranked it and 2nd respectively as the major causes.

And in the use of chi-square to find out the perception of the judges on the effects of secret cult, I found that the hypothesis which says that there is no professional bias among the judges is accepted since the calculated X24.365 < 12.6, which implies that there is no professional bias among the judges.

Recommendations where also made on how to curb the menace of secret cult from our universities.

 

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

 

Title page

Approval page

Dedication

Acknowledgement

Abstract

Table of content

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

  • General overview
  • Objective of the study
  • Significant of the study
  • Scope and limitation of the study
  • Research problems

CHAPTER TWO

Literature review

CHAPTER THREE

Research methodology

  • Method of data collection
  • Sources of data
  • Method of investigation

CHAPTER FOUR

Data presentation and analysis

CHAPTER FIVE

Conclusion and recommendations

Bibliography

Questionnaire

 


CHAPTER ONE

 

INTRODUCTION

  • GENERAL OVERVIEW

Whenever the story of secret cults in our tertiary institutions today is told it is always synonymous with blackmail and intimidation, torror, panic and pandemonium often resulting in Wreckages and Wanton Blord letting.

In the media, one hears cases of female students being raped here and there, other students loosing their lives as rival cult groups clash, cars and apartments belonging to lecturers and school authorities being burnt down, threats, counter threats and extortion of money and materials from fellow students by cult members.

 

Infact, the manner of violence often exhibited by these cult groups on campus would surprise horror movie actors and made nonsense of the tactics of guerilla terrorist.

 

Ironically, any of these cults some of which had been in existence close to four decades, where in the first place established by people who in their own rights or good and responsible citizens of this country. Many of founding fetters are now renowned internationals figures, world acclaimed intellectuals and achievers one right then begin to wonder as to why such great personalities could have had a hand in the laying of fiber eggs that eventually hatched and are now rampaging and threatening to bring our school system down to its foundations.

 

Interestingly, many of them now utilize every forum they attend to disown and totally disclaim these clandestine societies whose activities they say negate the spirit and circumstances for which they were put in place originally. They would tell all those who cared to listen that the secret campus cults as we known them today had not always been “secret” both in membership and operation and that they were at inception set up to highlight and protect the interest of students from evil intentions of some mischievous lectures who would victimize students in one way or the other.

 

How them did these seemingly harmless students, clubs and societies come to metamorphose into cheques of criminal banditry and devitish gangster ion. From the foregoing, it does appear that in forming these cults, their founding fathers probably did not reckon with the devastating effects their actions would later have on the society and the nations educational system. It could as well be that there are more to the situation than the public would be made to know.

Whichever way it is, the fact is that the seed of fire planted decades ago has now grown into a dangerous and uncontrollable wild fire. Gradually, the entire society is earring into the bite of this cankerworm which has continued to eat deeper and deeper everyday. Unfortunately the prey to this cult activities are the youths presented to be heir-apparent to the leadership of this country. If we fail in our guest to find the solution now, what kind of leadership would the youths of today offer the nation tomorrow? Some of them have left school and agree now to mixed with the society. The bad signs are already showing

 

Everybody now feel concerned and it is good that social organizations, religious groups and public spirited individuals are making frantic efforts to eliminate secret cult activities from our campuses. The government on the other hand had emaciated laws and legislations to check the ugly phenomenon security agent have as well been arresting and persecuting some cult members as deterrents to others.

 

But as all those were going on, campus cults seem to be going more ground and rings round themselves making their members. Untouchable perhaps we are not trying enough or that we are just wasting efforts at the wrong direction.

 

Why is it that the membership of these cults is often drawn from the children of the shakers and movers of the society or from the sons and relations of men and women at the corridors of power and influence? Some of these children have never known violence before they left their homes for the school. Why is it also that not even the several laws and legislations in existence nor the arrests and prosecution cult members were able to deter them? r what is so mysterious about these cults that members and former members are always afraid to reveal anything to non-members even at gum points. Moreover, are there some existing pips in the lives of these youths which are neglected and which they sought to fill in their own ways.

This research work takes a close and critical look at all these and more the write-up is quite incisive though by no mean exhaustive.

 

 

  • OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The main objective of this study is to examine the major effects of student’s involvement in campus cults. It is often said that the tertiary institution is an intellectual bakery. This study tries to find out the true position of the statement in our schools. Special emphasis is therefore placed on the effects of cult activities in our tertiary institution. Attention is also paid to the impact on the lives of the youths involved both as special elements, as students and as leaders of the forthcoming generation.

In other words, the researchers bring to light the immediate and future consequences of campus cults on the society.

 

 

  • SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

Much effort is begin put into finding lasting solutions to the menace of secret societies in our schools. Perhaps there are areas that need to be checked out to ensure that in finding the solutions, the society is not just treating a sickness without first diagnosing the systems. This study mighty as well provides the missing link. It tries to do this by promoting out some of the hitherto neglected long-term effects of students involvement in secret cults and by showing the forces keeping these cults alive in schools are very much far beyond the school building.

 

 

  • SCOPE AND LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

The researchers of this project’s involvement in cults are not enough. That is why I went further to cover both the reasons for students involvement and remedies to the problem. The process of finding out these reasons threw up some interesting and challenging experience which are quite intringing as they are controversial.

 

I further limited my study to cover the beginning of this decade till date. The period is particularly significant because it is the most crisis-ridden era in the history of secret societies in our tertiary institutions. Besides had to concentrate my research on I.M.T due to logistic reasons.

 

 

  • RESEARCH PROBLEMS

In writing the project, I encountered several problems among which are the following:-

  1. a) Scarcity of research materials – due to the sensitive of the topic and the newness of the subject, it is virtually impossible to come by publications which dealt on the issue. It appears that not many writers are interested in writing books or journals in it.

Again, most respondents where too reserved to co-operate with me. The first impression they get is that I am security informants and agents are commonly trying to extract implicating confessions from them. It took a lot of persuasions and self-identifications to get people to open up. Infact I had to juggle my questionnaire several times before I could get student respondents to it.

  1. b) Finance – One major handicap that weighted heavily on me is that of money. Consequently could not visit many of the places I would have very much loved to visit.

The cost of stationers and typing materials has also risen outrageously. At a front I had to reduce the numbers of illustration in the text to save typing cost.

 

 

Continue reading THE EFFECT OF SECRET CULTS IN OUR TERTIARY INSTITUTIONS (A CASE STUDY OF I.M.T ENUGU)

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE CAUSES AND EFFECTS OF EXAMINATION MALPRACTICE

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE CAUSES AND EFFECTS OF EXAMINATION MALPRACTICE IN THE TERTIARY INSTITUTION.

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CHAPTER ONE:         INTRODUCTION

1.1            Statement of problem

1.2            Examination malpractice

1.3            Aims and objectives

1.4            Statement of hypothesis

1.5            Scope of the study

1.6            Significance of the study

1.7            Limitation of the study

1.8            Terminology associated with exams malpractice

 

 

CHAPTER TWO        

2.0            Literature Review

 

CHAPTER THREE:    METHODOLOGY

3.1            The target population

3.2            Statistical sample design

3.3            Determination of sample size

3.4            Method of data collection

3.5            Problems encounter during data collection

3.6            Sex distribution of respondents

3.7            Age distribution of respondents

3.8            Distribution by sex and academic level

3.9            Method of data analysis

3.10       The chi-square (x2) test

3.11       Assumption on the use of x2 test

3.12       Formular distribution for spiegel (1992)

3.13       Calculation of expected frequency

3.14       The contingency co-efficient

3.15       Testing the significance of the continuance co-efficient

3.16       Student opinion on the causes of examination malpractice in institute of management technology

3.17       Contribution of the method of teaching in the school to students’ lact of interest

3.18       Student on the common form of examination malpractice in the institute of management

3.19       Distribution of student opinion on school that is most often involved in exam malpractice.

 

CHAPTER FOUR

4.0            Presentation and analysis of statistical data

4.1            Using pie chart

4.2            Using multiple bar chart

 

CHAPTER FIVE

5.0            Summary of findings recommendation and conclusion

5.1            Summary of finding

5.2            Recommendation and conclusion

Bibliography

Appendix i

Appendix ii

Appendix iii

Appendix iv

 

 

 

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1     STATEMENT OF PROBLEM

          That we are living in a changing world is a popular statement which needs little explanation especially when the knowledge of today can be the fully of tomorrow or when a human being of today can oil to exist on the day that follows when such natural phenomena occur, one does not bother as to ask why these happen out when they are accompanied by abnormal happenings on become worried and asks why which he seldom finds and such is examination malpractice.

Examination malpractices in our tertiary institution have become a social molady which have adversely affected the have and have notes, the hardworking and society in general such corrupt practices have succeeded in tarnishing the past government and management of such institution employed different strategies to move up the shameful situation from our tertiary institution, but unfortunately all their efforts were uneventful or uncertainly.

 

 

 1.2    BACKGROUND OF STUDY

          Some of the examination rules which one should not violate are.

(a)              Avoiding conversation while examination is in progress

(b)             Coming into the hall with you identity card

(c)              Submitting answer script after proper endured before going out of the hall

(d)             Refrain oneself from copying or writing for another obedience to the invigilator.

(e)              Not coming to the hall with expected answer written as pieces of paper.

 

 

As regards to these rules, one who violate them is likely to face the consequences for it by the committee.  The punishment depends on the magnitude of the offence. Some of the offence after being looked into by the committee one is asked to withdraw from the institution or stay back.  These culprit would not be caught without the proper vigilance of the invigilator or supervisor.  Therefore, having seen from above I can now say malpractice is legal action taken by a person in a position of trust.  This means when applied to examination situation that any contrary action performed by someone against certain examination regulation can be termed examination malpractice.

Statistics has shown the examination malpractice became a very common they in early eighteen and as a result, the instant had to set up a coming that will have to be looking into these malpractice cases.  This committee was inaugurated in 1982/83 and was called “Examination Malpractice Committee”.

This committee spells out the appropriate punishment for any culprits involve.

 

 

According to the institution (IMT) academe and examination regulations prepared in June 1992, some of the regulation which candidates are required to comply with are.

  1. All students shall arrive at the designated examination hall thirty minutes before the scheduled time.
  2. No student shall enter the hall unless they are asked to do so by the co-ordinator
  3. A student must enter examination hall with current original school fees receipt current identity card, pencil etc
  4. Calculator if required but not a programmable type
  5. Ruler and any other material table etc that may be permitted by the chief invigilator.
  6. If a candidate report to the examination without his/her I.D card, he/she should report to the chief – co-ordinators with a recent passport photograph endorsed by the it on

 

If it is discovered that the person who wrote the examination is not the owner of the identity card, it became a case of impersonation.

  1. No candidate shall have other material in his/her possession, even a private letter, while he/she is inside the examination hall.
  2. No caps, head ties and sun-glasses shall be allowed and student writing the same paper shall not sit side by side.
  3. No candidate is allowed to enter the examination hall sixty 960) minutes after the examination hall is prohibited.
  4. Students are not allowed to tear any paper from either the question paper or answer script for any purpose including rough work.  All rough works must be done at the back of his/her answer scripts and then be cancelled.  No rough work is permitted on the question paper on the desk at his or palm or anything else other than the answer scrip.
  5. No student wishing to draw the attention            of invigilators to  any particular issue shall do only by raising his/her hand.
  6. No alteration or cancellation is allowed on the registration number and blank spaces must be ruled across by students.
  7. All students in the examination hall entitled to sign the attendance shall I.D cards to the invigilator who will then sign your answer script indication that you are presence in the examination day.
  8. Student shall ensure that they enter the question attempted in the appropriate columns on the front cover of the script.
  9. Student must rule across all blank spaces of the examination answer booklets used during the examination i.e. either by cheating, copying, using material etc other than the one specified.

 

 

1.3     AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

The aims and objectives of this study are

  1. To find out whether examination malpractice depend on sex, school, academic level.
  2. To determine whether examination malpractice committee has helped to reduce examination malpractice in IMT.
  3. To know the commonest examination practice in IMT
  4. To determine the school/faculty that indulges most in examination malpractice in IMT and suggest why.
  5. To suggest its effect on the standard of education for example on IMT and to suggest ways of minimizing them.
  6. To find out whether lecturers has contributed to the examination.

 

1.4     STATEMENT OF HYPOTHESIS

 

 

Continue reading STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE CAUSES AND EFFECTS OF EXAMINATION MALPRACTICE

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF CRIMINAL OFFENCES RECORDED IN KUJE

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF CRIMINAL OFFENCES RECORDED IN KUJE– ABUJA (FCT) FROM 1999 – 2007.

(A CASE STUDY OF KUJE POLICE DIVISIONAL

HEADQUARTERS, ABUJA)

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ABSTRACT

Statistics is playing an important role in virtually all aspect of human life. This role is used to analyze a project, which is aimed at analyzing the rate of crime in Kuje-Abuja. This analysis is meant for correction, up-dating, forecasting the future accordance events. The objectives of the project are the criminal offences in Kuje.

 

The project comprises of five chapters; chapter one, contains the introduction of the project and the historical background of Kuje Police Station also the aims and objectives of the project. Chapter two contains the literature review and the literature review is relevant to the project topic.

 

Also, in same chapter two, the statistical tools used will be discussed, with necessary information on categories of crimes, chapter three, focus on the methodology and data presentation that is method of data collection and also source of data and problem encountered during collection of data. Chapter four is based on analysis data collected achieving the aims set in 1.3 chapter under general aims and specific objectives and also applying the statistical tools relevant to the project topic. Chapter five, its including findings, conclusion and recommendation, bibliography of what have been discussing in the whole project.

 

CHAPTER ONE

1.1     Introduction

1.2     Historical Background

1.3     Scope and Coverage

1.4     General and specific objectives

 

CHAPTER TWO

2.1     Literature

2.2     Statistical Tools

 

CHAPTER THREE

3.1     Methodology

3.2     Method of Data Collection

3.3     Problem Encountered

3.4     Data Presentation

 

CHAPTER FOUR

4.0     Analysis

 

CHAPTER FIVE

5.1     Conclusion

5.2     Recommendation

          References

 


 

CHAPTER ONE

1.1     INTRODUCTION

The increasing desire of the government and civilization to improve the maintenance of law and order and to engage in crime prevention, has led to the search for data on all aspect of crime. This will enable the government to know whether crime is increasing or decreasing.

 

Crime in a normal sense is an act or offence which is punishable by law. Crime is a term used to describe any act that breaks a society. Some examples of crimes are robbery, kidnapping, raping, theft etc.

 

Therefore, anyone that violet the law should be arrested, tried and immediately sentenced to some time in prison if and only if found guilty. The prison is where criminals are supposed to be reformed and learn to obey the rules and regulation set down or order to govern the society properly.

 

Despite the efforts of security agencies to curb crime in our society, the rate of crime is increasing at alarming rate. This indeed has been the common practice in the society especially within the youths. Many measures had been taken to eradicate this abnormal behavior from our society, nevertheless, the condition still remain the same as this criminal cases occur day in day out in the society.

 

Prison is a place where people who are convicted by the law court are being kept to await trial. It is a house built by the government in order to detain anybody who goes against the law.

 

 

CLASSIFICATION OF CRIME

Crime can be classified in many ways, but some of them are:

  1. Crime against people: This include rape, kidnapping, murder (homicide), robbery etc, such crimes usually carries severe punishment.
  2. Crime against property: Automobile, fraud, forgery, vandalism and robbery. In most cases these crimes may carry higher penalties than crime against people.
  3. Crime against public and morality order: This include disorderly conduct, gambling, prostitution, public drunkenness etc

 

These offences generally involve bigger penalties.

 

CAUSES OF CRIME

Crimes are caused by many factors. Criminologist in their studies enumerated the causes of crime as psychological, sociological and heredity etc. While to the prison officers, crime is regarded as a human reaction to his environment, for example, some crimes are caused by the following factor:

  1. Economy: This is a good cause of crime in our country, Nigeria. Without employment many had roam the town and in consequence the devil offers them employment in crimes especially property crimes.
  2. After-War-Effect: After the civil war, many youths who have been trained in the use of arms were left unemployed as a result of that crime and violence increase. The drift from the rural to urban areas and the corresponding unemployment brought about frustration and with the resultant poverty, destitution and lack of the barest necessity of life, the youths resort to crime and this appears to be gainful.
  3. Political Activities: Due to the political immaturity of the masses in the Nigeria scene, political campaigns and elections are regrettably atrocious. Crimes such as murder, looting, corruption and rioting amongst others were among the factors the encouraged criminal activities in our society.

 

In most cases, the law enforcement agencies are incapable of action especially when the rich or influential politicians are concerned or when the political party in power is concerned associated with this also are embezzlement of public funds through contracts, nepotism and corruption in distribution of public offices and privileges. These are notorious acts.

 

PREVENTION OF CRIME

  1. Retribution: This means severe punishment for any wrong conduct. No doubt this objectives governs the minds of the Nigeria courts and indeed the public. When one is being sentenced to prison, section 4(1) of prison Decree 1972 (decree 9) stated that “subject to this section, the effect of sentence of imprisonment is with hard labour passed upon a prison shall be that the prisoner shall be imprisoned for the period of the sentence and during his imprisonment shall work at such labour as may be directed by the superintendant”. This law therefore emphasized the puncture aspect.

 

  1. Deterrence: This can also be seen as consequence or punishment set aside by the government in order to serve as a lesson to determine both the prisoner and the public at large.

 

 

 

PRISON

According to the Oxford Advanced Learner’s Dictionary, a prison is “a building where people are kept as a punishment for a crime they have committed.

 

TYPES OF PRISON

  1. Convict Prison: This prison receives all cases of prisoners i.e. long and short sentence, condemned criminals and those of gazette etc.
  2. Divisional or provincial prison: It receives the cases of anybody sentenced under 12 years. The long term prisoners that may be found in this prison are those of special arrangement. E.g. building, carpentry, bricklayers after which they must be returned to the convict prison.
  3. Central prison: Central prison is a prison that governs all other prison activities in a given division and it is headed by the controller general of prison.
  4. Prison camp: Used to keep prisoner to learn skills such as carpentry, tailoring bricklaying, music etc

 

1.2     HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF STUDY

 

 

Continue reading STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF CRIMINAL OFFENCES RECORDED IN KUJE