TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON PATIENT ATTENDANCE

(A CASE STUDY OF HAJIYA GAMBO SAWABA GENERAL HOSPITAL KOFAR GAYAN, ZARIA)

ABSTRACT

The aim of this project is to examine the trend at which patients attends the hospital over the period of study. The study therefore, shows the usefulness of statistics to medicine and hence advice had always been sought by medical and health administrators from the Department of Statistics on the analysis and interpretation of medical data. The work is presented in five chapters. The first chapter being the introduction, the second chapter is the review of related literature where views of various writers on the topic concerned were analyzed. Chapter three is the research methodology, it examine the various research methods and procedure used in the data collection, it also highlight the techniques for data collections, where the historical and survey research method were adopted, all the data collected were presented and analysed in chapter four. Finally, chapter five summaries the whole research work, conclusion were drawn from the study and suggestion / recommendation on how to improve health care delivery to the people.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER ONE

1.1    Introduction

1.2    Aims of Objective

1.3    Scope and Limitation

1.4    Historical Background of Source of Data

CHAPTER TWO

2.1    Literature Review

2.2    Statistical Tools

2.3    Definition of Basic Concept

CHAPTER THREE

3.1    Methodology

3.2    Method of Data Collection

3.3    Data Presentation

CHAPTER FOUR

4.0    Computation and Data Analysis

CHAPTER FIVE

5.1    Conclusion

5.2    Summary

5.3    Recommendation

Reference

CHAPTER ONE

1.1    INTRODUCTION

Hajia Gambo Sawaba General Hospital since its inception in 1975 has received considerable amount of people, for treatment medical advice, family planning and a host of other reason. Different categories of people have patronized the hospital for its efficiency.

It is therefore in the best interest of the researcher to use his or her knowledge of statistic application is the attendance of ill health (patients) attending the hospital. It does not and here the research as will look forward to classifying, arranging and recording the monthly, quarterly, annual, bi-annual attendance of patients in the hospital.

In an attempt to introduce efficient methods and routine towards comparing the total attendance of, in and out patient this in general comprises of male, female and children patient attending the hospital.

To crown it all, it shall be in form of data (secondary, primary data) depending on the set of people wishing to use it and purpose or criterion behind using the research, the data collected will be analysis organized, summarized and compiled. Since hospital patronage is consistent and continuous process, it will be an efficient data collection, centres and will promote statistical application and voluminous data i.e. moving average and time series analysis.

1.2    AIMS OF OBJECTIVE

1. To determine whether there is an increase or decrease in patients’ attendance.
2. To forecast the patient attendance by using linear trend method
3. To forecast for patient attendance using the fitted trend equation from 2008 to 2012

1.3    SCOPE AND LIMITATION

This research will limit it analysis on the comparison of the attendance of patient. (IN and OUT) based on secondary data collected from the hospital Hajiya Gambo Sawaba General Hospital Zaria from (1998 to 2007).

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