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TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY SALES OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (A CASE STUDY OF NIGERIAN NATIONAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION, NNPC – ENUGU, FROM 1996 – 2003)

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY SALES OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (A CASE STUDY OF NIGERIAN NATIONAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION, NNPC – ENUGU, FROM 1996 – 2003)

 

 

 

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CHAPTER ONE

Introduction                                                                                                1

1.1     Development of oil industry in Nigeria                                   1

1.2     Motivation and Statement of Problem                                              8

1.3     Aims and Objectives of the Study                                           8

1.4     Scope of the study                                                                            9

CHAPTER TWO

Literature Review                                                                              10

CHAPTER THREE

Research Methodology                                                                     17

CHAPTER FOUR

Data presentation and analysis                                                                  34

4.1     Data presentation                                                                    34

CHAPTER FIVE

Summary, conclusion and recommendations                                    49

5.1     Findings                                                                                  49

5.2     Recommendation                                                                     50

Appendix                                                                                51

 

 

 

 

 


CHAPTER ONE

 

INTRODUCTION

1.1     DEVELOPMENT OF OIL INDUSTRY IN NIGERIA

          The search of oil in Nigeria started as early as 1937, but the discovery was not until 1956.  The sole of petroleum products began in December 1957, managed by a consortium of Royal Dutch Shell and British Petroleum BP Now known as Shell Petroleum Development Company SPDC.

G.A, Aga (1993) stated that Nigeria was the second oil producing nation in Africa after Libya and sixth in the world.  In May 1971, the Nigeria National Oil Company was established under the company and Allied matter Act of 1958 as applicable then.  NNOC was the government Agency Mandated by law to engaged in all phases of oil production and sales, NNOC was later in 1977 amalgamated into a full flex ministry of petroleum to form the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), which is in partnership with several oil company from different countries operating in Nigeria.  Before October 1965, Nigeria Crude Oil was refined overseas and all the processed oil needs were imported.  The first refinery plant came into operation in 1965 located at Alesa Eleme near Port-Harcourt.  Later Warri and Kaduna Petro-chemical refineries were established in 1978 and 1980 respectively.  Similarly, Pipeline and Products Marketing Company Ltd (PPMC) Enugu Depot was commissioned in 25 August 1975 by the then military Governor of the old Anambra State; colonel D.S. Abubakar.

The last w as the second refinery in Port-Harcourt.  It is however worthy of note that NNPC has several subsidiary company e.g Pipeline and Products Marketing Company PPMC.

 

1.1.1  NIGERIAN NATIONAL PETROLEUM

CORPORATION (ITS ROLE IN SALE OF

PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)

          The NNPC’s role in Oil Industry is so much that it cannot handled it alone.  This is the reason for the establishment of subsidiary company like pipeline and Products Marketing Company Ltd PPMC.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Manages the affairs of the oil industry in Nigeria, while the PPMC under the corporation is in charge of sales of petroleum products.

Government policy on oil matter such sales is been conveyed by the Petroleum Products Price Regulatory Agency (PPPRA) currently headed Alhaji Gbalamosi. NNPC therefore, works in conjuction with PPRA to implement government policy such as prices of petroleum products.  Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation carries out its function as such in both local and international.

 

1.1.2  OIL PRODUCING AND EXPORTING

COUNTRIES (OPEC)

Nigeria became a member of OPEC in 1971 after its establishment in September 1960.  Its oil policies were since in line with other member countries.  For instance, she had reserved for herself the right to acquire participating interest in Agip oil as early a 1966, exercise such an option by acquiring 33.3% in EIF oil in 1971.  By April 1971, Nigeria had established the Nigerian National Oil Company to give effect to the governments desire to participate effectively in strategic industries as expounded in the first National Development Plan (1962 – 1968).  This with production level of about 1.5 million barrel per day in 1971, representing about 3% of the total work oil production and 6 – 7% of the OPEC production.  Currently Nigeria production.  Nigeria had established herself a substantial net exporter of crude oil.  In view of the fiscal policies already taking to be I line with other member countries of OPEC, Nigeria had already fulfilled all the basic requirements of OPEC.  It has also in the mutual interest of the other oil exporting countries that Nigeria should become a member.  In order to add force to the control from the major forien oil companies briefly, the functions of OPEC is to stabilize and control the world oil output and price of crude in the world market.

 

1.1.3  THE OIL GLUT AND NIGERIAN ECONOMIC CRISIS

          The price of crude oil rose from US$0.90 per barrel in 1970 to the peak of $4.00 per barrel in 1980.  This period is generally referred to as the ‘Oil Boom’ in Nigeria.  However, the world economic recession set-in-mid 1981 both the demand and prices of oil fell by 1986 to below US$12.00 per barrel.  Thus, Nigeria’s crisis began in mid 1981.  This crisis was due to structure imbalance caused by the neglect of the agricultural sector, solid mineral.  In 1967/68, mining and oil sector accounted for only 13.5% of the National Revenue while agricultural sector accounted for 55.9%.  Unfortunately since the beginning of oil boom in the early 1970’s agriculture has been on the decline and its consequence has been large – scale.  Importation of food and raw material for use by local industries.  Government dependence on oil as a source of revenue grew from 0.8% in 1958/59 to 13.9% in 1967/68 and 87.23 in 1976/77.

Following the glut in the world oil market, which actually began in 1977, there was a major decline in the oil revenue to 71.46% in 1981 and further to 62.4% in 1983.  However, the main causes of this glut were the entry into the world oil market by the North Sea Oil Produce.  The UK and Norway, they did not only increase the supply of world oil but also reduced their crude oil price to US & 35 per barrel.  This force is that crude oil from Nigeria Libya and Algeria have the price with the North sea oil which led to the mass dissertation of their usual customers.  Also, the result of the high price of world oil during the 1970 demanded for oil fall and alternative sources of energy were explored.  France, for example which was at the one time dependent on oil for the generation of electricity then had up to 60% of her power needs supplied by nuclear power.  By plant began commercial operation in many countries.  Emphasis was given to energy saving investment hence, the demand for crude oil fail in early 1980 and a worldwide economic rececesion set-in in the following year.

Observing sales locally, the utility potential of petroleum products is high considering the population, base in Nigeria.  Over 70% (percent) of about 100 million Nigerian depend petroleum products for daily business unfortunately, however the frequent upward review of t he prices of petroleum products has not augur well           for Nigerian local business environment.  The instability of oil prices has resulted proximate instability of prices.

 

1.1.4  CONTRIBUTION OF OIL TO NIGERIAN

ECONOMY

          The oil industry in an integral part of the Nigeria economy.  It provides among other things, the greater part of foreign exchange earnings and revenue for the country’s development employment opportunities have increased greatly by the oil industry.  It should be noted that the oil industry is capital and equipment intensive, hence it employees relatively small number of perpous.

In regards to manpower training, the petroleum training institute (PTI) in Kalarri, Delta State for training and Promotion of skills needed in various aspect of petroleum technology.  Scholarships have been awarded to many qualified Nigerians for the relevant course in the Nigerian Universities.  Grants have equally been given to universities and polytechnics toward the development of departments that offer courses relevant to oil industry.  Infrastructural development is another area the oil industry has made great contributions.  The building of hospitals and pipe borne water etc are some example of the contributions.

 

1.1.5  NEGATIVE ASPECT OF OIL TO THE

NIGERIAN ECONOMIC

          On industry as can be seen from the above has contributed immensely to the development of the economy.  It is still contributing, but some of its shortcomings cannot be overlooked.

The high emphasis of government on oil has posed a serious neglect of other facet of Nigeria economy.  The fluctuation of oil prices especially at the world market have seriously affected the government in the implementation of her budget.  The idea of Nigeria being a ‘Mono-product economy’ has caused a serious imbalance in the economy resulting in unemployment, oil spillage and environmental pollution in the oil producing areas.  This constitutes a serious problem to mankind and his environment.

 

1.2     MOTIVATION AND STATEMENT OF PROBLEM

          Over the years, the frequent review of prices of petroleum products has gain a space in the heart of Nigerians, and most of the time, the out of stock of produces at depot for sales is also rampat.

In view of the above statement, the project examines total monthly sales of petroleum products in Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation in Enugu State and build a stochastic model for the data obtained.

 

1.3     AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

  1. To determine the stationarity of sales of petroleum products.
  2. To construct an autoregressive model of a suitable order for the process.
  3. To forecast the series for sales in 2004 quarters.
  4. To make recommendation based on the findings of the research.

 

1.4     SCOPE OF STUDY

          The scope of this study covers the monthly sales of petroleum products by Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation for the past eight years (1996 to 2003) and the figures used are in million naira.  STOCHASTIC TIME SERIES MODELS were used as appropriate.

 

 

 

CHAPTER TWO

 

LITERATURE REVIEW

          In view of that fact that it is necessary to up grade standard in other to meet the text of time and improved models on ground.  The researcher is poised to consolidate on the work done by some researchers in the past on related topics.  This chapter therefore, reviews that works of past researchers and their reports as contained in textbooks, Newspapers, Bulletin and Journals on sales of petroleum products in Nigeria.

Prof Jubril Aminu, Hon Minister of Petroleum Resources (1990) sees sales of petroleum products as a function of production since research is abundant.  He emphasis that investment has been low in all OPEC nations in general and Nigeria in particular.  He stress that unless we increase our investment, production would decline and this would adversely affect sales.

Dr. T.M John (1990) in his speech said that “there is too much waste in NNPC, the management style and habits are most wasteful”.  He emphasized that waste abounds in NNPC namely at the plants, in projects and in support services.  He said in NNPC we replace rather than maintain and repair, we buy in excess of our requirement at prices higher than commercial average and from source capabilities lower than commercial standard.

The society’s view is that the general purpose of sales of petroleum products is to add comfort and well being of mankind.  The way of fulfill this purpose is to produce meaningful work for the members of the society as well to produce distribute adequate oil and services to he needs of member of the society.

Unfortunately, government policy of the day seems to be inimical to this concept.  The frequent increases in prices of petroleum product over the year has not address the plight of the masses.  It is however hoped that economic reform program embarked upon by the present administration of President Olusegun Obasanjo will meet the need and yearning of the people

 

TIME SERIES DEFINITION

          A time series is the name given to the values of some statistical variables measured over a uniform set of time points which may represent the historical performance of some economic or business variable.  Examples of time series are total monthly sales receipts in a departmental store, total monthly sales of petroleum products, total monthly production by company, consumption of electricity in kilowatts data on population motor registration.

 

STOCHASTIC MODELS

MOVING AVERAGE PROCESS

As the researcher mentioned earlier:

Yt      =       åt      –        qåt-1

 

The process is an example of a moving average process.  The general expression for such a process is

Yt      =       åt – q1åt-1 – q2åt-2            ……………qqåt – q

Where; q1,            q2,     ………qq are constants this will be referred to as finite moving average process of order q, M(q).

AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESS

          The general Pth order autoregressive is define by

Yt – q1Yt-1 – q2 Yt-2 –                  …………qp Yp-p = åt

Where q1,    q2,          ……………          qq are constants this will be referred to as finite moving average process of order q, M(q),

AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESS

          The general pth order autoregressive is define by

Yt – f1 Yt – 1 – f2 Yt – 2 –                       ……………… fP YP – P+ = åt

Where f1, f2                          ……… fP are constant and the model is denoted AR(P).

STATIONARY AND AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION

Consider the two autocorrelation functions correlogram

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The diagrams above represent typical examples of type of time series.  Considering the stationary time series, the autocorrelation functions drops off as lag K becomes larger.  While the non-stationary time series keeps fluctuating along the horizontal line.

 

 

FORECASTING

          Considering the use of stochastic models in forecasting.  That is, the models in which the random element plays the dominant role in determining the structure of the model in the previous model, the disturbance element åt was simply an added ‘error’, added separately at each time moment to a strictly deterministic function consider the model below

Yt      =       fY4 + 1         +       åt

Where the independent disturbance element åt are identically distributed with zero mean and s2 and f is a parameter.  This type of process is called an Autorepresive process since its form represents a regression of Yt on Yt + 1.

We may rewrite the expression above for one time unit forward as;

Yt-1    =       fYt + 1 +       åt + 1

It can be seen that both Autoregressive and moving average model can be expressed in terms of weighted moving sum (either infinite or finite) of the sequence å.  It may be of help if we margin there model to be formed by a physical process in which the åI value form the input to some mechanism or process and the Yi values the output.  Suppose that when a particular process, there is only a single unit input at time 1 and no further input, then the system response by giving output of 1 at time 1, f, at time 2, f2 at time 3 and so on.  Such sequence is often referred to as impulse respond of the system – Box – Jeakins.  It can be seen that the forecast for the Autoregressive model of order 2 as used by the researcher in this work is given as

Ŷt      =       f1 yt   +       f2 yt – 1.

 

 

 

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THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF WOMEN AND CHILD TRAFFICKING

THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF WOMEN AND CHILD TRAFFICKING

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Abstract

The negative impact of women and child trafficking is a project work written by Faith Amarachi Igbokwe, in partial fulfillment in statistics from Nuhu Bamali polytechnic Zaria.

The project aimed at observing the level of child and women being trafficking on the society. Chapter one gives the historical background of Nigeria immigration service, the scope and general aims and specific objective carried out in this project.

Chapter two describe the statistical tools used in the project and how these tools should be used. Also the literature review is included.

Chapter three present the method of data collection, problem and presentation.

Chapter four shows the analysis of the data collection using the statistical tools discussed in chapter two.

The last chapter, chapter five gives the conclusion drawn based on the analysis carried out in chapter four and the recommendations of the researcher.

 

 

 

CHAPTER ONE

1.1 INTRODUCTION                                                             1

1.2 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES                                                         2

1.3 HUMAN TRAFFICKING AND CHILD LABOR                      2

1.4 SCOPE OF COVERAGE                                                            3

 

CHAPTER TWO

2.1 LITERATURE REVIEW                                                            4

2.2 STATISTICAL TOOLS                                                              9

 

CHAPTER THREE

3.1 METHODOLOGY                                                            14

3.2 METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION                                        14

3.3 PROBLEMS ENCOUNTERED IN DATA COLLECTION                 17

3.4 DATA PRESENTATION                                                           18

 

CHAPTER FOUR

4.1 DATA ANALYSIS

 

CHAPTER FIVE

5.1 CONCLUSION                                                                           27

5.2 RECOMMENDATION                                                              27

REFERENCE                                                                                   28

 

 

 

 

CHAPTER ONE

 

1.1  INTRODUCTION

Human trafficking as a new trend meriminelity is often referred to as “modern day slavery”. Some people call it “the exploitation of the vulnerability of a person by a mother, having control over such person or for mainly exploitative purpose or financial gains, the manner of such exploitation very from force labor to sexual exploitation. Child labor and domestic slave force to obey another person all acts felt pity than love to slavery with money being the propelling factor for perpetrating such acts. There are internal and across the border trafficking.

Child labor refers to the use of children of school age, normally bellow the age of 18years working to earn a living under conditions that impair their physical, cognitive emotional mental and social development and which also deprives them of opportunity for recreational activities and privileges of childhood.

 

This new dimension of crime is solid to be organized and studies have revealed that, there are syndicates (middlemen/women) that specialize in perpetrating the crime.

 

Trafficking is a violation of fundamental human right.

Trafficking in persons is a global problem affecting large numbers of children some estimate have as many as 1.2 million children being trafficked every year. There is a demand for trafficked children as cheap labor or for sexual exploitation. Children and their families are then unaware of the dangers of trafficking believing that better unemployment all lives lay in other countries of the world like Germany, Nigeria, Japan, and Italy.

 

1.2  AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

For the research to be meaningful and valid there should be a clearly defined objective of such survey aim at follow

i.            Trafficking in persons.

ii.            To determine the rear of population in trafficking.

iii.            To see the effect of trafficking in the society.

iv.            To determine the low enforcement and administrator.

 

1.3  HUMAN TRAFFICKING AND CHILD LABOR

 

 

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STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF COAL PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA (A CASE STUDY OF THE NIGERIA COAL CORPORATION ENUGU FROM 1990-1999)STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF COAL PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA (A CASE STUDY OF THE NIGERIA COAL CORPORATION ENUGU FROM 1990-1999)

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF COAL PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA (A CASE STUDY OF THE NIGERIA COAL CORPORATION ENUGU FROM 1990-1999)

 

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ABSTRACT

 

This research work was geared to determine the growth pattern in the coal production at the Nigeria Coal Corporation Enugu, for the period under study.

And this study is restricted to the Coal production ( in tones) form 1990 – 1999 at the Nigeria Coal Corporation Enugu which will reveal how well the Coal Industry has done in terms of production and the future prospect.

The measurement was in tones and the data were collected through the official records on production in the administrative office (production department) of the Nigeria Coal Corporation Enugu which was prepared and kept by.

And to accomplish this research work the same data were used in estimating the components of time series

 

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Title page

 

CHAPTER ONE

Introduction

  • Historical background
  • Aims and objectives of study
  • Scope f study
  • Literature review

CHAPTER TWO

  • Data collection
  • Limitation of study
  • Problems uncounted

CHAPTER THREE

  • Test for normality of production of coal
  • Test for homogeneity (constant) variance of production of coal.
  • Estimation of trend on production of coal
  • Determination of seasonal variations
  • Test for cyclical variation
  • Estimation of irregular variation/component.

CHAPTER FOUR

  • Forecasting
  • Summary/conclusion
  • Recommendations

Appendix

Reference.


CHAPTER ONE

 

INTRODUCTION

  • HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

The Nigeria Coal Corporation information manual (1990) states that “Coal was first discovered in 1909 at streams along Udi escarpment in Enugu state by the first group of British colonial adventures in Nigeria following a survey by the then colonial mineral survey department of southern Nigeria, actual mining started in 1916 at the foot of Udi hill along Enugu escarpment”.

 

Iwu (1990) stated that “initially, the Coal industry was a unit of the marine department and Coal produced was supplied to the British for their steam boats. Other supplies were to the Nigeria Railways for the steam locomotives engines. Following the increase in transportation activities by rail, the Coal industry was excised from the marine department and established with the Nigerian Railway in 1937. Increased political awareness and a strike actin by Coal miners to back up demand for wage increase resulted in the gunning down of twenty-one Coal miners at Iva valley mine by their employers on 18th November 1949. THE THEN British government set up a commission of inquiry headed by Sir Fitzgerald. This commission recommended that independent body been set up to manage government established business. In 1950 by the ordinance No.29. The Nigerian Coal Corporation was born”

 

 

Iwu (1990) went further to state that” the Nigeria Coal Corporation was then managed by the British was charged with the responsibility to prospect, mine, treat and market Coal and Coal by products in Nigeria. However, it was the shooting of the twenty-one (21) coal miners in Enugu that awakened the spirit of nationalism which subsequently gave birth to Nigeria’s independence in October 1960. The Coal industry gave rise to the first set of industries in Nigeria besides providing all the energy requirements for the nations premier industries, Coal became one of the major foreign change; earners for the then British colony.

The principal consumers of Coal are: The cement factories construction companies and overseas market

 

  • AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

This study on the production of Coal in Enugu has the following objectives.

  1. Estimation of the trend on production of coal for the past decade (ten years)
  2. Determination of the seasonal influence on production of coal for the past decade (ten years).
  3. Determination of the cyclical and irregular variation (if they exist).
  4. Forecasting on the expected irregular of the production in future say one year ahead.

 

 

  • SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The analysis will be confined to the Coal production data covering 1990 to 1999 at the Nigerian Coals Corporation Enugu. It would study the growth pattern in coal production for the period under study.

What informed the choice of this period 1990 to 1999 is that it was in 1985-89 that then federal government decided to rehabilitate the Coal industry. Thus, the study will reveal how well the coal industry has some in terms of production and the future prospect.

The data for this analysis are categorized into monthly output of coal these are the daily output of Coal it is weighed in the factory. Measurement is in tones and it is cumulated at the end of the month to gives the figures being used for the study.

  • LITERATURE REVIEW

COAL:

Coal is a combustible rock which has its origin in the accumulation and partial decomposition of vegetation. Okafor (1981) described coal as “ a hard block mineral substance that burns and supplies heat and from which Coal gas in made” He went further to state that “it is formed out of decomposed plant matter for over hundred of thousand of years:.

The Coal in Nigeria was formed during the cretaceous period about 120 million years age, by the acting of pressure and heat on decayed vegetation. The coal reserves in the country are estimated to run into billions of tones.

Iman (1990) stated that “the total coal reserve in the country is over 2.7 billion tones and of which 600 million tones have been proven” Ali (1996) also stated that “with an estimated reserve of 2.75 billions tones deposited in 13 states viz, Enugu, Kogi, Edo, Anambra, Plateau, Benue, Imo, Abia, Ondon, Bauchi, Delta, Taraba, and Adamawa states. Nigeria coal has unlimited potentials for export”

Coal is classified into four main divisions usually, referred to as ranks depending on appearances and properties.

 

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The four main ranks are:

  1. Lignite
  2. Sub-bituminous
  3. Bituminous
  4. Anthracite

The great diversity of form and chemical composition among the coal ranks is due to principally to the essential differences in the plant material from which they have evolved.

Nigerian coal corporation information manual (1997) described Nigeria coal as being mainly sub-bituminous steam coals with low sulphur and ash contents.

They are characterized by high colorific value and high volatile components and are found to be environmentally friendly for this reason, Nigeria coals have great potential for export with current expert demand standing at 15 million metric tones per annum”

Coal can be minded by either surface coper pit or open cast or underground system. Surface mining consist essentially of removing the overburden this exposing the mine and then extracting the coal. The system is being adopted at our Okaba Coal mine Access to underground mine is either by “shaft” or Adit. A shaft may be a rectangular or circular hole driven from the surface to the coal seam of reason able size to allow the use of equipments for conveyance of both men and materials shafts are not used in Nigeria Coal fields. The methods of working horizontally or moderately inclined seams are known as Adit method.

Iwu (1990) observed that “a high incidence of extractable waxy and resinous materials make Nigerian Coal more amenable to utilization in the chemical industries especially as source of resins, plastics and aromatics. “Nigerian Coal are not only useful in chemical industries, it can also be used in thermal power station for electricity generations as domestic fuel as alternative to fire word thus ensuring a stop to deforestation with the consequent desertification and soil erosion as metallurgical coke for iron and steel industry.

The Coal industry has had one of the most cheques of histories in Nigeria. It was at one time one of the major foreign exchange earners in the country but in the recent past has not made any significant input t the economy.

Iwu (199) summarized the factors that contributed to the deteriorated state of the Coal industry as follows.

  1. “The civil was of 1967 to 1970 which left all the coal mine shut down flooded and all the equipment dilapidated.
  2. the rapid development and total dependence in oil industry and latterly the has industry in preference to coal for all the entry needs of the country.
  3. The growing concern on the environment at impact of fossil fuel utilization especially coal.
  4. Lack of conscious, co-ordinated and concerted effort between the various arms of government toward an integrated development of the mineral resources in the country.
  5. There is not yet a comprehensive energy policy for Nigeria, which will stipulate strategy for developing various energy resources and rationalization of energy production and distribution to ensure a balanced energy mix for the country.

Inspite of all these problems, it is clear that the enormous potential of Nigerian coal is unquestionable.

Onu (1997) observes that “the annual demand for Nigerian Coal at the export market is 120 million tones while domestic demand for it stand at 170 million tones” The coal industry can, if properly harnessed generated the much needed foreign exchange in billion of Dollars for the country. It is note worthy that the present administration in recognition of this is decidedly playing a vital role to ensure that coal is re-integrated in to the energy matrix of Nigeria, through increased production and export as well as large scale utilization.

 

 

TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS AND APPLICATIONS:

Montgomery and Lynwood (1976) stated that “a time series is a sequence of observations on a variable of interest. The variable is observed at discrete time points usually equally spaced.

Mordi (1992) defined “time series as an arraignment of statistical data ordered according to the fines of its occurrence in data classified chronologically. “Thus a collection of numerical values of a particular variable listed in chronological order is known as time-series. The record of months scale and production of a company over a number of months or years, the schools daily attendance, amount of annual rainfall over a number of years, the weights of an animal record at different stages of growth are all examples of time series. the time can be days, weeks, months, years, decades or even seconds.

Ifeagwu (1992) states that “time series involves classifying and studying, the patterns of movement of the values of the variable over regular time. It enhances under standing of  the past and current pattern of changes. It provides dues about future patterns which aid in forecasting and such information is needed by researchers and policymakers”.

Spiegel (1972) and Nwabuokei (1986) observed that the characteristic movements to time series may be classified into four main types. Often caked components of a time series.

  1. Long term or secular movements: refers to the general direction in which the graph of a time series appears to be going over long interval of time.
  2. Cyclical movements: refers to the long term oscillations or swings about trend line or curve. These cycles, as they are sometimes called May or may not be periodic is they may or may not follow exactly similar patterns after equal internals for time. In business and economic activity, movements are considered cyclical only if they recur after time intervals of more than a year. An important example of cyclical movement is the so called business cycles representing intervals of prosperity recession, depression and recovering.
  3. Seasonal movement: refer to the identical or almost identical pattern which a time series appear to follow during corresponding months of successive years such movement are due to recurring events which take place annually, as for instance the sudden increase of departmental stores sales before Christmas.
  4. Irregular or random movement: refer to those sporadic motions of time series due to chance events such as floods, strikes, elections etc. Although it is ordinarily assumed that such events produce variations lasting only a short time, it is conceivable that they may be so intense as to result in new cyclical or other movements.

 

Time series analysis involves the decomposition of a series into the fundamental trend (Tt), seasonal variation (St), cyclical variation (Ct) and irregular variation (It) Components on the bases of three possible models named the additive, multiplication and mixed models.

Meclave and Benson (1988) noted that the difference between these models is:

  1. In the additive model, all the components are treated as residuals and are expressed is the original units while in the multiplicative model, only one is the trend is expressed in the units of the original data seasonal and cyclical components are treated as relative or percentages whose average value is 100.
  2. The word “additive” signifies lack of interaction effect among components. It is therefore here assumed that the valve of one component does not effect and is not affected by the value of the other components. the multiplicative model implies mutual dependence among components in an algebraic sence i.e. it is assumed that both seasonal and cyclical fluctuations are functions of the trend.
  3. In the additive model, seasonal variation remains constant as trend increases, while in the multiplication model the ratio of seasonal to trend remains constant i.e. seasonal variation increase in magnitude as trend increases. This shows that we can distinguish the additive model from the multiplication model by observing the effects of the trend values upon seasonal fluctuation and cyclical variations. They observed that although the additive model assumption is very true in some cases, that the multiplicative assumption characterizes the majority of economic time series. Consequently, the multiplicative model is not only considered the standard assumption of time series analysis.

It is more often employed in practice than other possible model. Time-series analysis has wide applications and cuts across most human endeavour more especially the business and economic aspects.

Ifeagwu (1992) adopted Time-series analysis on the price of major foodstuffs in Imo State from 1985 to 1989. He adopted the multiplicative model in general and used the last square method in estimating the trend, ratio to moving average method in estimating the seasonal index and also the cyclical and irregular components. In the study, he found that prices of major foodstuff have an increasing trend. His projections also show possible increases in prices of major foodstuff in Imo State.

Bulus (1992) took a study of property crime in Plateau State from 1985 to 1990 using the time series analysis. He found through trend estimation by least square method that property crime is on the increase while the seasonal analysis did not show significant seasonal influences.

He used the ratio to moving average method in estimating the seasonal component. His prediction indicates possible increase in property crimes.

Generally, h adopted the multiplicative model in his time series analysis.

Nwafor (1991) in a study on case of juvenile delinquency in Anambra State used the time series analysis. In his trend estimation by method of least square he found the delinquency trend to be on the increase and persons between the ages of fourteen and seventeen to be more delinquent. He used ratio to moving average method in estimating the seasonal index. Multiplication model was adopted in his time series analysis.

Egbosimba (1997) in a similar study on case of juvenile delinquency in Enugu found delinquent to have a constant trend and persons between the ages of fourteen and seventeen to be more delinquent. She also used the multiplicative model in her time series analysis.

 

Obi (1997) in this study of monthly water supply and revenue recovered at Onitsha Anambra State used time series analysis employing the multiplicative model. He the estimated the trend by least square method and found water distribution trend to be down ward or decreasing instead of being constant or increasing. Using the ratio to be in April an least in October.

 

Nwogwugwu (1997) used time series analysis on the study of Naira exchange rate vis-à-vis the dollar from September 1986 to December, 1995. He estimated the trend using three different methods: Least square, moving average and exponential smoothing methods as best method for estimating the trend because of its minimum variance property.

 

The least square method as second best while the exponential smoothing method as the last of the three methods. He used the ratio to moving average method to estimate the seas oral index which was adjusted and used to deseasonalize the data. The trend equation obtained was used in extrapolation in order to predict future values.

 

From the above literature, it is clear that time series analysis can be adopted in virtually all fields of human endeavour so long the data are collected in specified time intervals or chronological order. Hence, it will not be out of place adopting time series analysis in this work.

 

Time series analysis is consistent and in line with our original aims, and making prediction on production and sales of Coals in Nigeria Coal Corporation, Enugu.

More so, our data as obtained are chronological order

 

 

CHAPTER TWO

 

  • DATA COLLECTION

The conceptual variables appropriate in the analysis of the work are known from the definite specifications made in reference to the topic. The variables are production of Coal.

Secondary data were used for the analysis. The source of data was the official records on production in the administrative offices (production departments) of the Nigerian Coal Corporation, Enugu. The production departments monitor an keep records of production on daily and monthly basis. For the periods under study (1990 to 1999) the monthly totals for production in metric tones were extracted from the record books for use in this study.

 

 

 

Continue reading STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF COAL PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA (A CASE STUDY OF THE NIGERIA COAL CORPORATION ENUGU FROM 1990-1999)STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF COAL PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA (A CASE STUDY OF THE NIGERIA COAL CORPORATION ENUGU FROM 1990-1999)

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE NUMBER OF BABIES ADMITTED IN THE MOTHERLESS BABY HOME

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE NUMBER OF BABIES ADMITTED IN THE MOTHERLESS BABY HOME A CASE STUDY OF MOTHERLESS BABIES HOME .

 

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ABSTRACT

This project work was designed to investigate the admission of babies into the motherless baby’s home and cause of child abandonment.

Chapter one described the background of the study and research hypothesis. The chapter discuses the plight of motherless babies in the society at large.

Chapter two discussed about the literature review on the study.

Chapter deals with the three major ways of obtaining the data, this was of drawn through or directly from secondary method of data collection and the method of statistical analysis.

Chapter four explain about the analysis and interpretation of data.

In conclusion chapter five deal with the summary and recommendations from the writer are presented.

 

 

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER ONE

Introduction                                                                                      1

1.1     Background of the study                                                                   1

1.2     Aim and Objective                                                                            2

1.3     Scope and Coverage                                                                3

1.4     Historical Background of Motherless Babies Home                         3

1.5     The Societal Problems of the Motherless Babies                     5

1.6     Statement of the Project                                                          6

CHAPTER TWO
Literature Review                                                                              7
2.1     The cause of Child Abuse and Neglect                                    10
CHAPTER THREE
Research Methodology                                                                     15
3.1     Method of Data Collection                                                      15
3.2     Problems Encountered During the Study                                16
3.3     Method of Statistical Analysis                                                          17
CHAPTER FOUR
Analysis and interpretation of Data                                                  20
CHAPTER FIVE
Summary and Conclusion                                                                 28

5.1     Recommendations                                                                             30

References                                                                               31
Bibliography                                                                           32

 

 

 

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1     BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Motherless babies home refers to a place or a home whereby infant baby who has no female parent. While Orphan is one who loss both parents prematurely either through natural death or disaster.

Motherless is a situation whereby a baby or person lacks a female parent. Also motherless Babies home could define as an Institution where infant baby is kept whose mother is dead, abandoned or missing is received and look after them by a charitable organisation or individual, within any physical incident that took place in a while or in a specific period of time like war earthguare accidents etc render a number of children motherless, fatherless.

In most Africa’s for a example, a motherless baby is regarded as a servant or slave to others and they are treated merely without regard. Those whose parents is alive, since they don’t have any one back or rescue them out of their challenges.

In some other societies like America the motherless babies home and orphanages.

The main objective in this project has to do with the statistical analysis on the number of babies admitted in the motherless baby home in Enugu. That is why it is necessary to check critically into the extent to which the number of babies absorbs in the motherless baby homes within the Holy child motherless babies home Enugu.

 

 

1.2     AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

  1. To find out whether the length of time it female babies to bread up is less than male child
  2. To compare the proportion of female in the home to that of male.
  3. To make recommendation on the abandonment of babies based on my findings.
  4. To findout the number of reported case of on sex.
  5. To verity some of the possible cases of child abandonment.

 

 

1.3     SCOPE AND COVERAGE

This project covers the admission of inmates motherless babies home Enugu for a period of fen year (1995 – 2004).

1.4     HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF MOTHERLESS BABIES HOME IN ENUGU

 

 

Continue reading STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE NUMBER OF BABIES ADMITTED IN THE MOTHERLESS BABY HOME

ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF COURSE OF STUDY ON STUDENTS ATTITUDES TOWARDS ENTREPRENEURSHIP DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA

ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF COURSE OF STUDY ON STUDENTS ATTITUDES TOWARDS ENTREPRENEURSHIP DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA

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ABSTRACT.

The study is an empirical work that attempted to investigate the background of analysis of impact of students disposition in business attitudes within the context of their educational endeavour and personal behaviours are explored within the individual concept of interest. The study analyzed and compared the differences in entrepreneurial potential and perception about entrepreneurship by graduating students of Kaduna Polytechnic. Scholars were consulted to determine their contributions to the body of knowledge within the confines of research study. The total research population was 3804 with a sample size of 370 as the respondents using stratified research design to achieve the objectives of the study and primary data collected by means of closed-ended questionnaire as instrument. The statement of hypothesis to be tested: H1: An individual student’s course of study has significant positive impact on students’ tendency to be an entrepreneur; H0: An individual course of study has no significant impact on a students’ choice of being an entrepreneur. Frequency distribution tables were used for the analysis of data collected while the hypothesis was tested using the Chi-square (X2) and the effect of each variable on the sample subjects. The study revealed that entrepreneurship practice is never restricted to one particular descriptive but applies to all aspects of human endeavour and also contributes to human and economic development of a nation. Recommendations as to the roles of individual and stakeholders were put forward particularly that the governments at all levels need to cerate a favourable business climate to boost entrepreneurial development in Nigeria.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER ONE:

1.0    Introduction       –        –        –        –        –        –        –        1-2

1.1    Background of the study     –        –        –        –        –        2-5

1.2    Statement of the problem   –        –        –        –        –        5-6

1.3    Objectives of the study        –        –        –        –        –        7

1.4    Significance of the study     –        –        –        –        –        7-8

1.5    Research questions    –        –        –        –        –        –        8-9

1.6    Statement of hypothesis     –        –        –        –        –        9

1.7    Delimitation / scope of the study-        –        –        –        9-10

1.8    Definition of terms     –        –        –        –        –        –        10-12

CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.0    Introduction       –        –        –        –        –        –        –        13

2.1    Historical perspective of research area         –        –        –        13-15

2.2    Conceptual definition of entrepreneurship  –        –        15-18

2.3    Concept of entrepreneurship and entrepreneur   –        18-20

2.4    The process of entrepreneurship          –        –        –        –        20-22

2.5    Concept of development      –        –        –        –        –        23-24

2.6    Meaning of entrepreneurship development-        –        24

2.7    Factors influencing entrepreneurship development in the 21st century-        –          –        –        –        –        –        25-30

2.8    Characteristics and skills of an entrepreneur       –        31

2.8.1Entrepreneurial characteristics  –        –        –        –        31-34

2.8.2Entrepreneurial skills         –        –        –        –        –        –        34-35

2.8.3What is entrepreneurial spirit    –        –        –        –        35-36

2.9    Dynamics of the brain as the seat of entrepreneurial empowerment      –        –          –        –        –        –        –        36-37

2.10  Functions of entrepreneurship   –        –        –        –        37-39

2.11  Benefits of entrepreneurship      –        –        –        –        40-42

2.12  Factors determining the extent of entrepreneurship     42-43

2.13  Factors influencing the development of the individual entrepreneur     –        –          –        –        –        –        –        44-46

2.14  The role of marketing in entrepreneurship development in Nigeria       –        –          –        –        –        –        –        –        46-48

2.15   Challenges of entrepreneurship development in Nigeria        46-48

2.16  The role of entrepreneurship in the development of enterprises    –        –        –          –        –        –        –        50-51

2.17  The role of government towards entrepreneurship development in Nigeria   –          –        –        –        –        51-56

2.18  The role of entrepreneurship in economic development         56-59

CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.0    Introduction       –        –        –        –        –        –        –        60

3.1    Area of study     –        –        –        –        –        –        –        60

3.2    Research design         –        –        –        –        –        –        –        60

3.3    Justification for its adoption        –        –        –        –        60

3.4    Population of the study       –        –        –        –        –        61

3.5    Sample size and sampling techniques-        –        –        61

3.6    Justification for sampling section        –        –        –        –        61-62

3.7    Methods of data collection –        –        –        –        –        62

3.8    Instruments used in data collection    –        –        –        62

3.9    Method used in presentation and analysis of data collected (Data analysis techniques)        –        –        –        –        –        63

3.10  Limitations        –        –        –        –        –        –        –        63

CHAPTER FOUR: PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF DATA

4.0    Introduction       –        –        –        –        –        –        –        64

4.1    Respondents characteristics and classification     –        64

4.2    Presentation and analysis of data       –        –        –        65-72

4.3    Answer to research questions and or test hypothesis   72-76

CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.0    Introduction       –        –        –        –        –        –        –        77

5.1    Summary  –        –        –        –        –        –        –        –        77-78

5.2    Conclusion         –        –        –        –        –        –        –        –        79-80

5.3    Recommendations      –        –        –        –        –        –        80-82

Bibliography

Appendixes

 

CHAPTER ONE

1.0    INTRODUCTION

The rate of unemployment among school graduates is quite alarming in Nigeria. As part of measures to ameliorate the growing ugly situation, government at all levels (federal, state and local) are putting in place measures to encourage self-reliance, creativity and innovation drive through entrepreneurship development in Nigeria.

To understand entrepreneurship and development is to discover why Nigeria is described as a developing economy. Developing economy explains the extent by which men and women should contribute to develop workable ways or strategies in order to achieve economic growth and development. It revitalizes the dominant potentialities of every youth in providing job employment for others rather than seeking out for employment. It also assists to underscore the responsibilities of the government in fostering an environment of growth for entrepreneurial initiatives. It further opens avenues for the government to develop the right strategies especially in addressing poverty in the country (Erlinda D, 2011).

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1.1  BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

It is envisaged that government at all levels will have to put in place all necessary infrastructures to promote the growth and development of small and medium scale enterprises (SME) in the country to enable Nigeria attain the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) target set by the United Nations by the year 2012 and Nigeria vision 20-20-20. A vibrant SMSE sector is critical in the realization of MDGs objective.

Experts have observed that Nigeria may not likely meet the MDGs target by reducing poverty by 50% by the year 2015 considering the present status of SMSE operations in Nigeria.

It is universally accepted that Micro (Small) and Medium Scale Enterprises are the engine of development of any nation. A nation’s rate of development is determined by the number of SMEs in the country.

Statistical studies have shown that 40 – 50% SMEs in most advanced countries of the world are owned by graduates or those who passed through Colleges. Given this facts in Nigeria, the opposite seems to be the case (Business Day Newspaper 9th Jan., 2007, pg. 13).

Scholars have divergent views on who is an entrepreneur and who is not. While the first school of through is of the opinion the entrepreneurs can be made (taught through formal classes) the other group however are of the opinion that entrepreneurs are born (an inheritance). They argued further that entrepreneurs possess special qualities and must have the right attitude and disposition towards entrepreneurship.

This development is likely to inculcate in students the right aptitude and attitudes to starting their won business and by implicating making them a better entrepreneur. Considering the fact that the key factors that give rise to enterprise are personal, sociological and environmental factors. For quite some time now by statistical analysis, over 3 millions Nigerians in a given year become qualified to form the labour market largely from both Universities and Polytechnics but, regrettably, not more than 10% of this population are likely to gain employment to join the formal sector. The International Labour Organization collaborated this very poor level graduates, employment yearly (Bugaje, Hamalai & Indabawa, 2002).

Indeed, it is obvious that with the level of development and attendant threats in Nigeria, the possibility of government having the capability of leveraging poverty and meeting the United Nation target on MDGs 2012 is remote.

Inspite of the Federal Government of Nigeria’s effort towards setting up institutions such as National Poverty Alleviation Programme (NAPEP), Small and Medium Scale Enterprises Development Agency (SMEDAN), National Directorate of Employment (NDE), National Economic Reconstruction Fund (NERFUND) and other relevant programmes with other world bodies and NGOs, the piece of entrepreneurship development is still low when compared with other developing countries with developed nation taking the lead.

Thus, this research work is an attempt to investigate the individual characteristics of graduating students with a view to understand whether some students are more likely to take to entrepreneurship than others irrespective of their course of study. Attempt will be therefore be made to understand the possible influence of a students course of study in their desire to start a business of their own.

1.2    STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Continue reading ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF COURSE OF STUDY ON STUDENTS ATTITUDES TOWARDS ENTREPRENEURSHIP DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA